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GBP/USD Outlook Mired by Bearish Momentum- June Low on Tap?

GBP/USD Outlook Mired by Bearish Momentum- June Low on Tap?

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Risks Larger Decline as Bearish RSI Momentum Remains in Play.

- USD/CAD Continues to Eye 1.2800 Resistance- Canada Employment in Focus.

- Bullish USDOLLAR Outlook Mired by Dovish FOMC Minutes.

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Ongoing closes above 1.5330 (78.6% retracement) to 1.5350 (50% retracement) may generate a larger rebound in GBP/USD, but the pair remains at risk for a further decline as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bearish momentum carried over from the previous month.
  • Failure to hold above the Fibonacci overlap may bring up key support around 1.5169 (June low) to 1.5180 (23.6% retracement).
  • Despite the recent decline in the exchange rate, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD since the beginning of the month, with the ratio approaching extremes as it climbs to +1.53.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD may continue to give back the advance from late-June amid the failed run at the March high (1.2834); will keep a close eye on the RSI as it appears to be coming off of overbought territory.
  • Nevertheless, the loonie may face additional headwinds over the next 24-hours of trade as Canada’s Employment report is expected to show a 10.0K decline along with an uptick in the jobless rate.
  • Break/close above 1.2800 (38.2% expansion) to 1.2834 (March high) may opening up the next topside target around 1.2940 (78.6% retracement) to 1.2950 (50% expansion).

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Read More:

Post-FOMC Minutes USD Decline Nearing Completion? Déjà Vu!

US Dollar Remains in Position for Gains versus GBP, AUD, NZD

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11981.9911987.4511945.730.1273.34%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Long-term outlook for the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar remains bullish as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains on course to remove the zero-interest rate policy, but the greenback may continue to come off from the July high (12,014) ahead of the July 29 interest rate decision as the Fed Minutes highlight the risk for a further delay in the normalization cycle.
  • May see Fed officials adopt a more dovish tone for monetary policy as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowers its U.S. growth forecast & sees the global economy expanding at the slowest pace since the financial crisis.
  • The failed run at the June high (12,043) may bring former resistance around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) back on the radar as new support.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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