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Retail FX Turns Net-Short USD/CAD as Pair Eyes 1.2800 Resistance

Retail FX Turns Net-Short USD/CAD as Pair Eyes 1.2800 Resistance

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/CAD Eyes March High Ahead of Canada Employment Report.

- GBP/USD Under Pressure Ahead of U.K. Budget Statement; BoE Meeting in Focus.

- USDOLLAR Breakout Vulnerable to Dovish FOMC Minutes.

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USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/CAD extends the advance from the previous week as Canada’s widening trade deficit dampens the outlook for growth; pair remains at risk for a further advance as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushes into overbought territory.
  • With market participants calling for a 10.0K contraction in Canada employment along with an uptick in the jobless rate, a dismal report may spark a run at 1.2800 (38.2% expansion) to 1.2833 (2015 high); need a close above the key region to open up the next topside target at 1.2940-50 (50% retracement).
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd is turning heavily net-short USD/CAD as the ratio pushing deeper into negative territory to sit at -3.28.


GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • GBP/USD continues to search for support as the Greek saga dampens the outlook for the U.K. economy; close below 1.5450 (61.8% retracement) raises the risk for a further decline as the bearish RSI momentum gathers pace.
  • May see the sterling face additional headwinds over the next 24-hours of trading should the budget statement delivered by Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osbornehighlight more aggressive austerity measures & dampen expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike.
  • Next key downside region of interest comes in around 1.5330 (78.6% retracement) to 1.5350 (50% retracement).

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Read More:

Price & Time: Cable Outlook Getting Less Murky

Webinar: Greek Gaps in Focus- Technical Setups in Play this Week

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12002.3812015.2311942.440.52123.47%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar looks poised for a move at the June high (12,043) as it breaks out of the triangle/wedge formation carried over from April; may see a continuation of the long-term bullish trend amid the heightening uncertainties surrounding the global economy.
  • Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains on course to normalize monetary policy, the meeting minutes may dampen the appeal of the greenback should the fresh batch of commentary drag on interest rate expectations.
  • Need a break/close above 12,050 (78.6% retracement) to open up the 2015 high at 12,162.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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