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AUD/USD Continues to Hold Key Support Despite RBA Verbal Intervention

AUD/USD Continues to Hold Key Support Despite RBA Verbal Intervention

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Holds Key Support Despite RBA Verbal Intervention- China PMI’s in Focus.

- GBP/USD Outlook Clouded as Greek Uncertainties Drag on BoE Expectations.

- USDOLLAR Preserves Range Ahead of ADP Employment & ISM Manufacturing.

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AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD may continue to work towards the top of its current range around 0.7820-30 (38.2% retracement) amid the ongoing closes above key support- 0.7570 (50% retracement) to 0.7590 (100% expansion).
  • Even though Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens retain the verbal intervention on the local currency, positive developments coming out of China – Australia’s largest trading partner – highlight an improved outlook for global growth.
  • Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail traders remain net-long AUD/USD since May 15, but the ratio has come off extremes as it sits at +2.16.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • Despite the upward revision in the U.K. 1Q GDP report, GBP/USD may continue to face range-bound prices going into July as the spillover from a Greek event dampens the outlook for the economy & prospects for a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike.
  • Will keep a close eye on the fresh rhetoric coming out of the BoE as Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to present the semi-annual Financial Stability Report on July 1; will the central bank head highlight a growing dissent?
  • Waiting for a break/close above 1.5780 (38.2% retracement) to 1.5790 (50% expansion) or below 1.5630 (38.2% retracement) to 1.5650 (38.2% expansion) to highlight a near-term directional bias for GBP/USD.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Game (Theory) Day for Equities

Webinar: Greece Charges Euro Gap & Snapback- USDJPY Remains at Risk

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11852.5111866.2911819.060.1069.91%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may face a larger rebound amid the ongoing series of closing prices above 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement), but the greenback may continue to consolidate ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 29 interest rate decision as market participants speculate on the liftoff.
  • Will keep a close eye on the ADP Employment report along with the ISM Manufacturing survey as market expectations call for another 230K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).
  • May continue to see range bound prices going into July, with near-term resistance coming in around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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