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Retail FX Heavily Net-Long AUD/USD as Pair Holds Opening Range

Retail FX Heavily Net-Long AUD/USD as Pair Holds Opening Range

2015-06-26 16:25:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- Retail Crowd Ramps Up Long AUD/USD Position Ahead of Key Support.

- GBP/USD Risks Resumption of Bullish Trend as Positive U.K. Data Boost Bets for BoE Rate Hike .

- USDOLLAR Remains Stuck in Triangle/Wedge Ahead of Holiday NFP Report.

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AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD may continue to hold above key support around 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) as it preserves the opening monthly range; need a closing price below the key region to favor a resumption of the long-term bearish trend.
  • Will keep a close eye on Australia’s Retail Sales report along with the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) coming out of China as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) appears to be approaching the end of its easing cycle, while Governor Glenn Stevens retains the verbal intervention on the local currency.
  • Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail traders are becoming more bullish on AUD/USD as the crowd remains net-long from May 15, with the ratio approaching the highs from earlier this month as it advances to +3.49.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • GBP/USD may continue to retrace the decline from back in 2014 amid the narrow race between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Fed to normalize monetary policy, especially as MPC member Martin Weale sees scope to raise the benchmark interest rate as early as August.
  • With market participants looking for an upward revision in the U.K. 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, signs of a stronger recovery may spur a further advance in GBP/USD as it boosts interest rate expectations.
  • With the ongoing closes above 1.5630 (38.2% retracement) to 1.5650 (38.2% expansion), will continue to keep a close eye around 1.5929 (June high) to 1.5940 (61.8% expansion) as the RSI retains the bullish momentum carried over from back in April.

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Read More:

The Weekly Volume Report: Cable Divergence

USDJPY Runs Into Key Resistance- Short Scalps Favored Sub 124.35

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11886.24

11891.09

11843.81

0.34

69.64%

Retail FX Heavily Net-Long AUD/USD as Pair Holds Opening Range USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may continue to hold a tight range going into the end of June amid the string of failed attempts to push back above former support around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion); will keep a close eye on the monthly opening range for July especially with the holiday weekend.
  • The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is likely to take center stage next week as market participants continue to weigh the outlook for the Fed liftoff; current expectations show another 230K expansion in job growth, while private wages are expected to hold steady at an annualized 2.3%.
  • May see the triangle/wedge formation continue to take shape in the days ahead amid the ongoing closing prices above 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement).

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Retail FX Heavily Net-Long AUD/USD as Pair Holds Opening Range

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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