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EUR/USD Holds Weekly Range Despite Greek Threat- 1.1120 in Focus

EUR/USD Holds Weekly Range Despite Greek Threat- 1.1120 in Focus

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Holds Weekly Range Despite Growing Threat for Greek Default/Exit.

- USD/JPY Range Support in Focus as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Endorses Wait-and-See Approach.

- USDOLLAR to Consolidate Further as Subdued Price Growth Undermines September Fed Liftoff.

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the growing threat for a Greek event, the failure to push back below 1.1120 (61.8% retracement) may continue to produce range-bound prices in EUR/USD; still waiting on a break of the bullish RSI momentum to favor a further decline in the exchange rate.
  • Growing threat for contagion should weigh on the single currency, but the Euro remains at a risk for a relief bounce should Greece avoid default/exit; long-term outlook remains bearish as the European Central Bank (ECB) pledges to fully-implement the quantitative easing program.
  • Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, but seeing the ratio holding near extremes as it sits at -1.96.


USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • Failure to close above 124.30-40 (161.8% expansion) may continue to produce range-bound prices in USD/JPY especially as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) largely endorses a wait-and-see approach.
  • Despite speculation of seeing a further expansion in the asset-purchase program in the months ahead, the Japanese Yen may face limited losses over the remainder of the year as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda appears to be softening the verbal intervention on the local currency & looks for stability in the exchange rate.
  • Will keep a close eye on range support coming in around 122.30-40 (78.6% retracement) as the RSI retains the bullish momentum carried over from the previous year.

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Read More:

USDJPY Runs Into Key Resistance- Short Scalps Favored Sub 124.35

Price & Time: EUR/USD Double Top or About to Breakout?

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11848.8711866.6111836.64-0.1141.17%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though the Fed remains on course to normalize monetary policy later this year, the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may continue to consolidate in the days ahead as it struggles to push back above former support around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion).
  • The pickup in Personal Spending boosts the outlook for growth, but the ongoing weakness in the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) may become a growing concern for the Fed as it limits the scope to achieve the 2% target for inflation.
  • Lack of momentum to close above the former support region may bring the 11,745 (50% retracement) to 11,759 (23.6% retracement) back on the rader.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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