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USDOLLAR Breakout Gathers Pace as Fed’s Powell Endorses Sept. Liftoff

USDOLLAR Breakout Gathers Pace as Fed’s Powell Endorses Sept. Liftoff

David Song,

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Rebound Gathers Pace as Fed’s Powell Endorses Rate-Hikes in September & December.

- EUR/USD Preserves Triangle/Wedge Formation Amid Greek Impasse; Bearish RSI Trigger in Focus.

- GBP/USD Risks Larger Pullback After Carving Higher-High in June; 2014 Retracement on Radar.

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11868.2411883.9411803.220.52110.79%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may face a larger rebound as price & RSI break out of the bearish formation; need to clear the string of lower-highs from earlier this month to favor a resumption of the long-term bullish trend.
  • Despite the dismal U.S. Durable Goods report, we’re seeing Fed Governor Jerome Powell highlights a hawkish outlook for monetary policy, with the FOMC voting-member endorsing a rate hike in both September as well as December.
  • The push back above former support around 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement) may generate a larger rebound going into the end of June, with a close above the region opening up the next topside target around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Failed attempt to test the May high (1.1465) may keep EUR/USD within a triangle/wedge formation over the near to medium-term; waiting for a close below 1.1185 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement) along with a break of the bullish RSI momentum to highlight lower-high in euro-dollar.
  • A resolution for Greece may spur a relief bounce in EUR/USD, but the long-term outlook for the pair remains bearish as amid the deviation in the policy outlook, with the ECB pledging to fully-implement its QE program until September 2016.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 6, but the ratio continues to come off from extremes as it currently sits at -1.63.


  • GBP/USD remains at risk for a larger pullback after carving a higher-high (1.5929) in June, while the RSI fails to push into overbought territory; will look for a higher-low in the days ahead as long as the oscillator preserves the bullish momentum carried over from April.
  • As the Bank of England (BoE) looks for a stronger recovery in the second-half of 2015, a meaningful pickup in growth & inflation may spur a larger retracement of the 2014 decline in GBP/USD amid the tightening race with the Federal Reserve to normalize monetary policy.
  • Close below 1.5740-50 (23.6% retracement) to bring up next downside targets around 1.5630 (38.2% retracement) to 1.5650 (38.2% expansion).

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Read More:

COT-Yen Positioning is Extreme

GBPUSD Pullback to Offer Favorable Long Entries- 1.57 Key Support

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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