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NZD/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Long Despite Fresh 2015 Low

NZD/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Long Despite Fresh 2015 Low

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- NZD/USD Risks Further Losses on Dismal China PMI; Retail Crowd Remains Net-Long.

- Gold Outlook Turns Increasingly Bearish Following Failed Attempt to Push Above Former Support.

- USDOLLAR Continues to Mark Lower-Highs on Mixed Data- Durable Goods Orders in Focus.

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NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • NZD/USD slips to a fresh monthly low of 0.6862 coming into the last full-week of June; a dismal reading for China’s Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the New Zealand dollar as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) keeps the door open to further reduce the benchmark interest rate.
  • Need to keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it flirts with oversold territory; break below 30 may open the door for a further decline in the exchange rate.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long NZD/USD since May 19, with the ratio holding near extremes as it sits to +3.19.


XAU/USD Daily Chart
  • Lack of momentum to close above former support around $1,202 (38.2% expansion) raises the risk for a further decline in Gold; break of the near-term bullish RSI momentum to provide conviction/confirmation.
  • Growing concerns for the outlook for global growth may add downside pressures over the near to medium-term amid the ongoing easing cycle in Asia/Pacific & Europe.
  • Break/close below $1,168 (61.8% expansion) should raise the risk for a meaningful run at the 2015 low ($1,142).

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Read More:

Price & Time: EUR/USD Double Top or About to Breakout?

GBP/USD Rally to Accelerate on Tighten Race Between BoE & FOMC

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11803.9311809.1111755.680.2474.15%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the dollar bounce spurred by the better-than-expected U.S. Existing Home Sales report, the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar remains at risk for a further decline as it retains the downward trending channel from earlier this month; failure to retain the bearish RSI momentum may highlight a bottoming process going into the end of June.
  • Another 0.9% contraction in demand for U.S. Durable Goods may dampen the outlook for growth; will keep a close eye on Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircrafts, a proxy for future business investments, amid the ongoing concerns surround the world’s largest economy.
  • With the failure to close below 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,745 (50% retracement), will keep a continue to watch former support around 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement) for near-term resistance.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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