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GBP/USD Retail FX Turns Net-Short Despite Fresh June High

GBP/USD Retail FX Turns Net-Short Despite Fresh June High

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Retail Crowd Flips Net-Short Ahead of BoE Minutes.

- USD/JPY Bullish Outlook at Risk on Lack of BoJ Verbal Intervention.

- USDOLLAR Continues to Carve Lower-Highs Ahead of Fed Meeting.

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GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • GBP/USD may continue to retrace the decline from May (1.5814) amid the ongoing series of higher lows in the exchange rate; a further decline in U.K. Jobless Claims paired with a further advance in Average Weekly Earnings may boost the appeal of the sterling as the Bank of England (BoE) remains on course to raise the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low.
  • Even though the BoE retains a wait-and-see approach, may see the sterling continue to outperform against its major counterparts should the meeting minutes show signs of a growing dissent within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has flipped net-short GBP/USD earlier this morning, with the ratio currently standing at -1.13.


USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • USD/JPY appears to have made another failed attempt to push back above former support around 123.80-90 (50% expansion) even as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has little intentions to impact the exchange rate.
  • The BoJ is widely expected to retain its current policy at the June 19, but the lack of verbal intervention may heighten the appeal of the Japanese Yen as market participants scale back bets for a further expansion in the asset-purchase program.
  • Break/close below 122.30-40 (78.6% retracement) to raise the risk for a larger pullback in USD/JPY.

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11849.4911890.2211849.19-0.1156.13%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar continues to carve a narrowing range ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) June 17 interest rate decision as the fundamental developments coming out of the U.S. economy fails to encourage expectations for a stronger recovery.
  • String of lower highs in USDOLLAR may continue to highlight a near-term bearish outlook, with signs of a further delay in the Fed’s normalization cycle is likely to encourage a larger retracement of the advance from May (11,634).
  • Nevertheless, looks as though the Fibonacci overlap around 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to 11,843 (38.2 retracement) will continue to offer near-term support, with a dovish Fed raising the risk for a move back towards 11,745 (50% retracement) to 11,759 (23.6% retracement).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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