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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook to Gather Pace on Hawkish BoE Rhetoric

GBP/USD Bullish Outlook to Gather Pace on Hawkish BoE Rhetoric

2015-05-21 16:20:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Bullish Formation Favored Ahead of Fresh BoE Rhetoric.

- Canadian Dollar to Benefit from Upbeat Retail Sales, Sticky Core Inflation.

- USDOLLAR Risks Larger Pullback on Slowing Consumer Price Index (CPI).

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Bullish formation in price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to favor topside targets for GBP/USD especially as U.K. Retail Sales jumps 1.2% in April.
  • With Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney & Deputy-Governor Nemat Shafik on the wires over the next 24-hours of trade, fresh batch of commentary may heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the British Pound should the officials strike a more hawkish tone for monetary policy.
  • Seeing increased volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) going into the weekend, with retail crowd flipped back net-long GBP/USD during the North American trade as the ratio sits at +1.03.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD remains at risk of facing a narrowing range ahead of the Canadian data prints scheduled for Friday as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.
  • Despite expectations for a slowdown in the headline reading for Canada inflation, the stickiness in the core Consumer Price Index (RSI) along with another rise in Retail Sales may boost the appeal of the loonie as the Bank of Canada (BoC) appears to be moving away from its easing cycle & turns increasingly upbeat towards the economy.
  • Long-term outlook remains bullish for USD/CAD, but may see a move back into the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2080 (61.8% retracement) to 1.2110 (61.8% retracement) should the fundamental developments coming out of Canada boost interest rate expectations.

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Read More:

Price & Time: USD Turning the Corner?

EURCAD Pullback Stalls at Support- Sub 1.3538 to Negate Bullish Bias

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11799.80

11836.04

11786.03

-0.31

71.32%

GBP/USD Bullish Outlook to Gather Pace on Hawkish BoE RhetoricUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Lack of momentum to clear & close above theFibonacci overlap around 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to 11.843 (38.2% retracement) raises the risk for range-bound prices in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar especially amid the ongoing weakness in the real economy.
  • A further contraction in the headline U.S. CPI paired with a further slowdown in core inflation may undermine the near-term rebound in the greenback as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sees scope for a further delay in the normalization cycle.
  • In turn, the next downside target comes in around 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,745 (50% retracement) with key support sitting at 11,646 (61.8% retracement) to 11,655 (23.6% expansion).
GBP/USD Bullish Outlook to Gather Pace on Hawkish BoE Rhetoric

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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