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AUD/USD Eyes 2015 Highs- Retail FX Crowd Remains Short

AUD/USD Eyes 2015 Highs- Retail FX Crowd Remains Short

David Song,

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Marks Fresh May Highs Despite Record-Low Wage Growth; Retail Crowd Remains Short.

- NZD/USD Rebound at Risk on Slowing New Zealand Retail Sales, RBNZ Retains Verbal Intervention.

- USDOLLAR Searches for Support as Household Spending Continues to Miss Market Forecast.

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AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite record-low wage growth in Australia, seeing a diminishing risk for the region to lose its AAA credit-rating, with AUD/USD clearing near-term resistance around 0.8000 (61.8% retracement) to 0.8020 (38.2% expansion).
  • Will continue to watch the topside targets as the bullish RSI remains in play, with the next objective coming in around 0.8120 (23.6% expansion) to 0.8130 (78.6% retracement) .
  • Despite the fresh monthly high, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short AUD/USD since May 12, with the ratio currently sitting at -1.19.


NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • NZD/USD remains at risk of facing headwinds over the coming months as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) retains the verbal intervention on the local currency; will watch former support around 0.7600 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7610 (61.8% retracement) for new resistance.
  • NZD/USD rebound could be cut short as 1Q New Zealand Retail Sales are projected to grow 1.6% after expanding 1.7% during the last three-months of 2014; may spur speculation for RBNZ rate cut.
  • As the kiwi-dollar retains the long-term bearish trend, a break/close below 0.7330 (23.6% retracement) to favor a further decline in the exchange rate.

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11662.8011747.1311651.5-0.71134.25%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar continues to search for support as the ongoing weakness in U.S. Retail Sales drags on the economic/Fed outlook.
  • Will keep a close eye on the preliminary U. of Michigan Confidence survey, which is expected to show consumer sentiment holding steady in May.
  • Bearish RSI momentum continues to highlight the risk for a further decline; push into oversold territory may open up the door for a break/close below 11,646 (61.8% retracement) & test of channel support along with the 2015 low (11,550).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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