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USD/JPY Stalls at Resistance- Retail FX Crowd Remains Long

USD/JPY Stalls at Resistance- Retail FX Crowd Remains Long

David Song,

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Remains Stuck in Wedge/Triangle- Japan to Post Trade Surplus.

- AUD/USD Eyes 0.8000 Resistance Following Australia Budget Update.

- USDOLLAR Fails to Hold February Support; U.S. Retail Sales in Focus.

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USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Lack of momentum to close above 120.10 (50% retracement) to 120.20 (61.8% retracement) may continue to produce range-bound prices in USD/JPY; need a break of the bearish RSI momentum from back in December to see a resumption of the long-term bullish trend.
  • With Japan expected to post the first trade balance surplus since June 2013, a positive development may dampen bets of seeing the Bank of Japan (BoJ) further expand its quantitative/qualitative easing (QQE) program.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since April, but seeing the ratio come off of recent extremes as it currently sits at +1.82.


AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • AUD/USD appears to be making another move towards 0.8000 (61.8% retracement) to 0.8020 (38.2% expansion) as Australia estimates a 2015-16 budget deficit of 2.1% of GDP versus market expectations for a 2.4% clip.
  • However, AUD/USD may mark another failed attempt to close above near-term resistance as the annualized 1Q Wage Price Index is expected to slow to a fresh record-low of 1.4%.
  • Weak Australia wage growth may keep AUD/USD capped over the near-term, with support coming in around 0.7820 (38.2% retracement) to 0.7850 (61.8% expansion).

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11730.6611803.2711727.86-0.55108.79%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar faces a risk for a further decline as it fails to hold the February low (11,736); downside targets remain favored as the bearish RSI momentum remains in play.
  • Despite expectations for another 0.2% expansion in U.S. Retail Sales, ongoing weakness in household spending may dampen the scope for an upbeat print.
  • Break/close below 11,720 (38.2% expansion) to open up the next downside targets around 11,646 (61.8% retracement) to 11,655 (23.6% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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