News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Bearish EUR/USD Retail Sentiment Remains Despite Fresh May Highs

Bearish EUR/USD Retail Sentiment Remains Despite Fresh May Highs

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short Despite Fresh Monthly Highs.

- AUD/USD Stalls at Resistance Ahead of Australia Employment Report.

- USDOLLAR Eyes February Low (11,736) as Weak ADP Drags on NFP Expectations.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

EUR/USD

Bearish EUR/USD Retail Sentiment Remains Despite Fresh May Highs

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD climbs to a fresh monthly high (1,1366) with the RSI threatening overbought territory; close above 1,1300 (78.6% retracement) raises the risk of seeing a full retracement of the decline from the February high (1.1532).
  • With the ongoing correction in Bunds & the DAX, the near-term dynamic may generate a further advance in EUR/USD, but the long-term outlook for the single-currency remains bearish as the European Central Bank (ECB) embarks on its quantitative easing (QE) program.
  • Despite the fresh monthly high, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crow remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, with the ratio at an extreme -2.58.

AUD/USD

Bearish EUR/USD Retail Sentiment Remains Despite Fresh May Highs
  • Despite the weaker-than-expected Australia Retail Sales report, AUD/USD appears to be making another assault at near-term resistance around 0.8000 (61.8% retracement) to 0.8020 (38.2% expansion).
  • With Australia’s Employment report expected to show another 4.0K expansion in April, a positive development may heighten the appeal of the higher-yielding currency as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) appears to be approaching the end of its easing cycle.
  • Close Above near-term resistance should expose the next topside area of interest coming in around 0.8120 (23.6% expansion) to 0.8130 (78.6% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: Buy the Dip or Sell The Rip?

May Forex Seasonality Foresees Dollar Rebound After April Selloff

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11785.69

11848.86

11757.61

-0.44

122.31%

Bearish EUR/USD Retail Sentiment Remains Despite Fresh May HighsBearish EUR/USD Retail Sentiment Remains Despite Fresh May Highs

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar coming up against the February low (11,736); downside targets remain favored as the bearish RSI momentum gathers pace.
  • The weaker-than-expected ADP Employment report may drag on market expectations for Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) amid the ongoing slack in the U.S. economy.
  • Will continue to watch the monthly opening range, but may see another run at the February low (11,736) as the USDOLLAR continues to come off of near-term resistance around 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Bearish EUR/USD Retail Sentiment Remains Despite Fresh May Highs

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES