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Bullish USD/JPY Retail Sentiment Narrows Despite Risk for Breakout

Bullish USD/JPY Retail Sentiment Narrows Despite Risk for Breakout

2015-05-04 16:50:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Continues to Carve Higher Highs & Lows to Threaten Triangle/Wedge Formation.

- AUD/USD Outlook Mired by Bearish Formation, Growing Bets for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Cut.

- USDOLLAR Stalls at Former-Support; Fed Rhetoric in Focus.

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • May see a continuation of the series of higher highs & lows in USD/JPY as the pair appears to be breaking out of the triangle/wedge formation, while the RSI threatens the bearish momentum carried over from back in December.
  • Near-term breakout may spur a resumption of the long-term bullish trend; need a break/close above 120.55 (23.6% retracement) to 120.60 (61.8% retracement) for conviction/confirmation for a further advance in USD/JPY.
  • Despite the growing risk for a breakout in USD/JPY, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the ratio coming off extremes and narrowing to +1.82 as the retail crowd appears to be fading the near-term advance in the exchange rate.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • Near-term outlook for AUD/USD favors the downside targets as the pair continues to carve a series of lower highs & lows ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision.
  • Seeing increased bets for a 25bp RBA rate cut as market participants price a 75% probability for a further reduction in the cash rate according to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps (OIS).
  • Still waiting for a close below 0.7820 (38.2% retracement) to open up the next downside target at 0.7710 (23.6% retracement).

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Read More:

COT-Large Yen Speculators Close to a Net Long Position

May Forex Seasonality Foresees Dollar Rebound After April Selloff

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11878.49

11897.25

11858.65

0.09

52.97%

Bullish USD/JPY Retail Sentiment Narrows Despite Risk for BreakoutUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar continues to trade on a firmer footing despite the mixed data prints coming out of the world’s largest economy; still waiting for a break of the bearish RSI momentum to favor a resumption of the long-term bullish trend.
  • Will keep a close eye on the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric coming out ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as 2015-voting members Charles Evans and John Williams are scheduled to speak later today.
  • Break/close above 11,901 (78.6% expansion) to favor a further advance in USDOLLAR, with the next topside objective coming in around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement).

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Fed’s Daniel Tarullo Speaks on U.S. Economy

13:00

ISM New York (APR)

13:45

--

58.1

Factory Orders (MAR)

14:00

2.0%

2.1%

Factory Orders ex Transports (MAR)

14:00

--

0.0%

Fed’s Charles Evans Speaks on U.S. Economy

16:25

Fed’s John Williams Speaks on U.S. Economy

19:10

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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