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EUR/USD Retains Bullish Pattern Despite Thin Market Participation

EUR/USD Retains Bullish Pattern Despite Thin Market Participation

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- Euro Resilience Pushes Retail Positions to Extremes- 1.1300 Still in Focus.

- AUD/USD Outlook Mired by Speculation for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Cut.

- USDOLLAR Rebounds Gathers Pace Despite Lackluster ISM Manufacturing Survey.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD outperforms against its major counterparts, but lack of momentum to break/close above the 1.1300 handle (78.6% retracement) raises the risk for former support to turn into new resistance; need a break of the bullish RSI momentum for conviction/confirmation a near-term top is in place.
  • With the narrowing risk for a Greek default/exit, positive data prints paired with the upbeat tone from the European Central Bank (ECB) may spark a ‘taper tantrum’ in the euro-area over the near to medium-term.
  • Despite the ongoing series of higher highs & lows in EUR/USD, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd is turning increasingly bearish as the ratio continues to trend lower, with the current reading sitting at -2.60.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • AUD/USD may face a further decline in the days ahead as it carves a new series of lower highs & lows, while the RSI falls back ahead of overbought territory.
  • Seeing growing bets for another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as a Bloomberg News survey shows only 4 of the 28 economists polled see the central bank keeping the benchmark interest rate on hold at 2.25%.
  • Failure to hold above 0.7820 (38.2% retracement) may open the door for a move back towards 0.7710 (23.6% retracement).

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Read More:

The Weekly Volume Report: Euro Volume Surges

USDCAD Breakdown Stalls at Key Support- May Opening Range in Focus

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11878.79

11887.39

11799.07

0.62

118.72%

EUR/USD Retains Bullish Pattern Despite Thin Market ParticipationUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the string of weaker-than-expected data prints, the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar extends the rebound from the February low (11,736) amid thin market conditions; need a break of the bearish momentum to favor a resumption of the long-term bullish trend.
  • As the ISM Manufacturing employment component contracts in April, may dampen bets for a strong U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report; current market forecasts are for a 230K expansion in employment.
  • Stay mindful of the thin market conditions going into the weekend, but will watch former support zones for new resistance, with the next region of interest coming in around 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Markit Purchasing Manager Index (APR F)

13:45

54.2

54.1

ISM Manufacturing (APR)

14:00

52.0

51.5

ISM Prices Paid (APR)

14:00

42.0

40.5

U. of Michigan Confidence (APR F)

14:00

96.0

95.9

Construction Spending (MAR)

14:00

0.5%

-0.6%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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