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NZD/USD Holds Resistance Ahead of RBNZ- FOMC Spurs Relief USD Bounce

NZD/USD Holds Resistance Ahead of RBNZ- FOMC Spurs Relief USD Bounce

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- NZD/USD Retail FX Remains Net-Short Ahead of RBNZ.

- USDOLLAR Threatens Key Support Ahead of 1Q GDP, Fed Interest Rate Decision.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Holds Resistance Ahead of RBNZ- FOMC Spurs Relief USD Bounce

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • NZD/USD continues to threaten the downward trend carried over from October as the bullish RSI momentum gathers pace; close above 0.7730 (78.6% retracement) may open up the 2015 high (0.7888).
  • Even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the cash rate at 3.50%, the fresh batch of commentary from Governor Graeme Wheeler may dampen the appeal of the higher-yielding currency should the central bank head toughen the verbal intervention on the kiwi.
  • Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short NZD/USD since April 27, with the ratio currently sitting at -1.54.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI

US Dollar Breaks Key Support - Here are Levels to Watch Next

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11823.55

11902.58

11819.46

-0.61

114.09%

NZD/USD Holds Resistance Ahead of RBNZ- FOMC Spurs Relief USD BounceNZD/USD Holds Resistance Ahead of RBNZ- FOMC Spurs Relief USD Bounce

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar holds February low (11,736) as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stays on course to normalize monetary policy & anticipates a stronger recovery later this year.
  • Seems as though the Fed is buying more time amid the weakness in the first-quarter GDP figure, but the ongoing series of lower highs & lows in price raises the risk for a further decline in the greenback.
  • Failed attempts to break/close below 11,721 (38.2% retracement) to 11,745 (50.0% retracement) may produce a near-term bound in USDOLLAR, but the downside remains favorable as long as the bearish RSI momentum remains in play.Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 24)

11:00

--

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (1Q A)

12:30

1.0%

0.2%

Personal Consumption (1Q A)

12:30

1.7%

1.9%

GDP Price Index (1Q A)

12:30

0.5%

-0.1%

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q A)

12:30

1.0%

0.9%

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (MAR)

10:00

1.0%

1.1%

Pending Home Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

10:00

5.1%

13.4%

Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision

16:00

0.25%

0.25%

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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