Talking Points:
- USD/JPY Eyes 118.20 Support Ahead of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting.
- NZD/USD Outlook Hinges on Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision.
- USDOLLAR Remains at Risk for Further Decline on Dismal 1Q GDP, Dovish Fed.
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Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- May see a further decline in USD/JPY as the pair carves a series of lower-highs in April, while the bearish RSI momentum continues to take shape.
- Nevertheless, Japanese policymakers heighten calls for a further expansion in monetary policy and argue that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) should increase its monthly purchases by another JPY10T to bring the asset-purchase program to JPY 90T/month.
- Even though the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since April 8, it seems as though FX traders are buying into the two-day decline as the ratio climbs to +2.66.
NZD/USD
- NZD/USD may continue to consolidate ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision on April 30 as the central bank is widely expected to retain its current policy.
- Seeing limited speculation surrounding the policy meeting as all 15 economists polled by Bloomberg News forecast the cash rate to stay on hold at 3.50%; a shift in the forward-guidance/verbal intervention may dictate the near-term outlook for NZD/USD.
- As NZD/USD retains the long-term bearish trend, failure to retain the series of lower-highs from March may spark a move back towards near-term support around 0.7430 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7440 (23.6% retracement).
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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
| Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 11915.93 | 11977.62 | 11908.41 | -0.38 | 97.71% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Despite the 4.0% jump in orders for U.S. Durable Goods, Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar slips to fresh monthly low (11,907) as the components show ongoing weakness in private-sector consumption along with a dampened outlook for business investments.
- Series of weaker-than-expected data prints may drag on the 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report & encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further delay its normalization cycle in an effort to foster a stronger recovery.
- Keeping a close eye around 11,869 (23.6% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) for support, but a break to the downside may open up the next region of support around 11,828 (78.6% retracement) to 11,836 (61.8% retracement).Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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