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AUD/USD Clears Short-Term Range, Eyes March High Ahead of RBA Minutes

AUD/USD Clears Short-Term Range, Eyes March High Ahead of RBA Minutes

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Eyes March High Ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes.

- USD/CAD Correction to Accelerate on Strong Canada Retail Sales, Sticky Consumer Price Index (CPI).

- USDOLLAR Threatens Bullish Formation as Weak Data Drags on Interest Rate Expectations.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Break of near-term range opens the door for a move at the March high (0.7937) as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bullish momentum, with key support holding around 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion).
  • Despite the strong Australia Employment report, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes may reinforce a bearish outlook for AUD/USD as Governor Glenn Stevens keeps the door open to further reduce the benchmark interest rate.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd has flipped net-short AUD/USD ahead of the weekend, with the ratio slipping to -1.26 amid a 22.5% jump in short positions.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • May see a more aggressive decline in USD/CAD should the bearish RSI momentum gather pace, with the oscillator dipping into oversold territory.
  • The upbeat tone laid out by Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz suggests that the central bank could be nearing the end of its easing cycle; a 0.5% rebound in Canada Retail Sales paired with a sticky reading for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may heighten the appeal of the loonie as it dampens bets for additional monetary support.
  • Failure to hold above 1.2220 (50% retracement) raises the risk for a move back towards 1.2080 (61.8% retracement) to 1.2110 (61.8% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: High Volume Liquidation in USD/CAD

US Dollar Likely to Trade Lower versus Canadian Dollar, Euro

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11991.73

12047.2

11982.06

-0.39

93.07%

AUD/USD Clears Short-Term Range, Eyes March High Ahead of RBA MinutesUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar looks poised for a larger correction as it struggles to retain the ascending channel formation carried over from the previous year, while the RSI retains the bearish momentum.
  • Series of dismal data prints coming out of the U.S. economy should continue to sap the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback as it limits the Federal Reserve’s scope to raise the benchmark interest rate in mid-2015; U.S. CPI may set the tone for the week ahead as market participants anticipate to see sticky price growth in March.
  • Break of the April low (11,951) is likely to generate a further decline, with the key downside region of interest coming in around 11,869 (23.6% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion).Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Housing Starts (MAR)

12:30

1040K

926K

Housing Starts (MoM) (MAR)

12:30

15.9%

2.0%

Building Permits (MAR)

12:30

1081K

1092K

Building Permits (MoM) (MAR)

12:30

-1.9%

-5.7%

Initial Jobless Claims (APR 11)

12:30

280K

294K

Continuing Claims (APR 4)

12:30

2323K

2268K

Philadelphia Fed Business Survey (APR)

14:00

6.0

Fed’s Dennis Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economy

17:00

Fed’s Loretta Mester Speaks on U.S. Economy

17:10

Fed’s Eric Rosengren Speaks on U.S. Economy

17:30

Fed’s Stanley Fischer Speaks on U.S. Economy

19:00

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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