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AUD/USD Retail Crowd Turns Net-Long; Upbeat BoJ to Boost JPY Appeal

AUD/USD Retail Crowd Turns Net-Long; Upbeat BoJ to Boost JPY Appeal

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- Retail AUD/USD Crowd Flips Back Net-Long as RBA Retains Current Policy.

- USD/JPY Rebound Gathers Pace Ahead of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision.

- USDOLLAR Threatens Bearish RSI Momentum; FOMC Minutes in Focus.

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AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD may continue to face range-bound prices as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) endorses a wait-and-see approach; string of closes above 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) highlights the risk for a larger rebound.
  • Need a break/close above 0.7720 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7740 (78.6% expansion) to see a potential run at the March high (0.7937) especially as the bullish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) gathers pace.
  • Despite the recent volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), the retail FX crowd has flipped back to net-long AUD/USD following the RBA interest rate decision, with the ratio currently holding at +1.33.


USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • USD/JPY may continue to retrace the pullback from the March high (112.01) amid the rise in risk appetite, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) keep the door open to further expand its quantitative and qualitative (QQE) program.
  • However, the widening Current Account surplus along with and upbeat outlook for the BoJ may heighten the appeal of the Japanese Yen and boost the outlook for the Nikkei (JPN225).
  • Failure to break below the 118.20 (61.8% retracement) to 118.30 (78.6% expansion) raises the risk for a larger rebound, but need a break of the bearish RSI momentum to favor a continuation of the long-term upward trend.

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Read More:

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






AUD/USD Retail Crowd Turns Net-Long; Upbeat BoJ to Boost JPY AppealUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite calls for a rate hike in the second-half of 2016 by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar could be coiling up to breakout of the near-term wedge/triangle formation as the RSI threatens the bearish momentum carried over from March.
  • Will keep a close eye on the wires as Fed Governor Jerome Powell and New York Fed President William Dudley are scheduled to speak ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes .
  • With the bullish formation in play, break/close above 12,082 may open up the door for fresh 2015 highs in the USDOLLAR.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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