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USD/JPY 118.20 Support in Focus Going Into BoJ Interest Rate Decision

USD/JPY 118.20 Support in Focus Going Into BoJ Interest Rate Decision

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Eyes 118.20 Support Ahead of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision.

- AUD/USD Risks Larger Rebound Ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting.

- USDOLLAR Weighed by Dismal Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)- Outlook Mired by Bearish Momentum.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/JPY may face a further decline in the week ahead as it breaks below 118.90-119.00 (50% retracement), with the bearish RSI momentum gathering pace.
  • Will keep a close eye on the March low (118.32) into the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement(118.20) going into the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) April 8 policy meeting as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains confident in achieving the 2% target for inflation and endorses a wait-and-see approach.
  • Despite the near-term pullback in the exchange rate, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY, with the ratio climbing to +2.71 amid a rise in long-interset.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • String of failed attempts to close below 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) may generate a larger rebound in AUD/USD a bullish RSI divergence appears to be taking shape.
  • Seeing mixed views surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision as most economists see the central bank retaining its current policy, while market participants are ramping up bets for a 25bp rate cut; will keep a close eye on the policy statement for a toughened verbal intervention on the Australian dollar.
  • Will watch former support zones for near-term resistance, with the firs region of interest coming in around 0.7720 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7740 (78.6% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: USDOLLAR Stalls At Key Pivot

USDCAD Reversal Scalps Pending Below 1.2700 Resistance Ahead of NFPs

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11982.76

12043.25

11952.18

-0.44

101.86%

USD/JPY 118.20 Support in Focus Going Into BoJ Interest Rate DecisionUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index preserves the long-term ascending channel dating back to July 2014 despite the dismal U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report; will continue to watch the opening monthly range take shape in the week ahead as market participation thins going into the holiday weekend.
  • The unexpected uptick in Average Hourly Earnings may heighten arguments for a Fed rate hike in June, but the dip in the Participation Rate may become a growing concern for the central bank amid the weakening labor pool.
  • Nevertheless, 11,894 (61.8% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) remains key area of support, which also lines up with the 50-Day SMA (11,901).Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Non-Farm Payrolls (MAR)

12:30

245K

126K

Unemployment Rate (MAR)

12:30

5.5%

5.5%

Change in Private Payrolls (MAR)

12:30

235K

129K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAR)

12:30

10K

-1K

Two-Month Payroll Revision (MAR)

12:30

--

-69K

Underemployment Rate (MAR)

12:30

--

10.9%

Change in Household Employment (MAR)

12:30

245

34

Labor Force Participation Rate (MAR)

12:30

62.8%

62.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (MAR)

12:30

0.2%

0.3%

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (MAR)

12:30

2.0%

2.1%

Average Weekly Hours (MAR)

12:30

34.6

34.5

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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