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AUD/USD Retail FX Remain Net-Long; 0.7500 in Focus Ahead of NFP, RBA

AUD/USD Retail FX Remain Net-Long; 0.7500 in Focus Ahead of NFP, RBA

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Long Even as Pair Posts Fresh-Low Ahead of RBA.

- SPX500 Continues to Lag Behind as Bearish RSI Momentum Remains in Play.

- USDOLLAR Remains Capped Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Holiday Weekend.

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AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD slips to fresh low (0.7532); close below 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) raises the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate.
  • May see a more meaningful run at 0.7490-0.7500 (61.8% expansion) amid growing bets the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will further reduce the cash rate at the April 7 policy meeting; will Governor Glenn Stevens toughen up the verbal intervention on the aussie as the exchange rate approaches 0.7500?
  • Despite the decline, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long AUD/USD since March 30, with the ratio currently holding at +1.83.

SPX500

SPX500 Daily Chart
  • Looks as though 2040 will continue to act as near-term support for SPX500, but may need a fundamental catalyst for a topside break as price continues to carve a string of lower-highs.
  • Will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it retains the bearish trend carried over from the end of November; need a bullish break in the oscillator to favor a continuation of the bullish trend.
  • Even though the long-term outlook for global equities remain bullish, SPX500 may continue to lag behind its major counterparts as the Fed remains on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015.

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Read More:

Price & Time: USD/CAD Burden of Proof

USDCAD Reversal Scalps Pending Below 1.2700 Resistance Ahead of NFPs

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

12038.90

12074.49

12022.39

-0.15

59.26%

AUD/USD Retail FX Remain Net-Long; 0.7500 in Focus Ahead of NFP, RBAAUD/USD Retail FX Remain Net-Long; 0.7500 in Focus Ahead of NFP, RBA

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index may face choppy price action going into the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as market participation thins ahead of the Easter holiday; long-term structures remain in play.
  • Despite expectations for a 245K print along with a 5.5% jobless rate, ongoing weakness in Average Hourly Earnings may dampen the appeal of the greenback as the disinflationary environment drags on interest rate expectations.
  • Will continue to watch former support around 11,894 (61.8% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) as support, and still need a close above 12,082 (61.8% expansion) to favor a continuation of the bullish trend.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAR)

11:30

--

6.4%

Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 28)

12:30

286K

268K

Continuing Claims (MAR 21)

12:30

2405K

2325K

Trade Balance (FEB)

12:30

-$41.2B

-$35.4B

ISM New York (MAR)

13:45

62.0

50.0

Factory Orders (FEB)

14:00

-0.4%

0.2%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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