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AUD/USD Retail FX Remain Net-Long; 0.7500 in Focus Ahead of NFP, RBA

AUD/USD Retail FX Remain Net-Long; 0.7500 in Focus Ahead of NFP, RBA

2015-04-02 17:45:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Long Even as Pair Posts Fresh-Low Ahead of RBA.

- SPX500 Continues to Lag Behind as Bearish RSI Momentum Remains in Play.

- USDOLLAR Remains Capped Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Holiday Weekend.

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AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD slips to fresh low (0.7532); close below 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) raises the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate.
  • May see a more meaningful run at 0.7490-0.7500 (61.8% expansion) amid growing bets the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will further reduce the cash rate at the April 7 policy meeting; will Governor Glenn Stevens toughen up the verbal intervention on the aussie as the exchange rate approaches 0.7500?
  • Despite the decline, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long AUD/USD since March 30, with the ratio currently holding at +1.83.

SPX500

SPX500 Daily Chart
  • Looks as though 2040 will continue to act as near-term support for SPX500, but may need a fundamental catalyst for a topside break as price continues to carve a string of lower-highs.
  • Will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it retains the bearish trend carried over from the end of November; need a bullish break in the oscillator to favor a continuation of the bullish trend.
  • Even though the long-term outlook for global equities remain bullish, SPX500 may continue to lag behind its major counterparts as the Fed remains on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: USD/CAD Burden of Proof

USDCAD Reversal Scalps Pending Below 1.2700 Resistance Ahead of NFPs

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

12038.90

12074.49

12022.39

-0.15

59.26%

AUD/USD Retail FX Remain Net-Long; 0.7500 in Focus Ahead of NFP, RBAAUD/USD Retail FX Remain Net-Long; 0.7500 in Focus Ahead of NFP, RBA

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index may face choppy price action going into the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as market participation thins ahead of the Easter holiday; long-term structures remain in play.
  • Despite expectations for a 245K print along with a 5.5% jobless rate, ongoing weakness in Average Hourly Earnings may dampen the appeal of the greenback as the disinflationary environment drags on interest rate expectations.
  • Will continue to watch former support around 11,894 (61.8% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) as support, and still need a close above 12,082 (61.8% expansion) to favor a continuation of the bullish trend.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAR)

11:30

--

6.4%

Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 28)

12:30

286K

268K

Continuing Claims (MAR 21)

12:30

2405K

2325K

Trade Balance (FEB)

12:30

-$41.2B

-$35.4B

ISM New York (MAR)

13:45

62.0

50.0

Factory Orders (FEB)

14:00

-0.4%

0.2%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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