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EUR/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; 1.0710 Near-Term Support

EUR/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; 1.0710 Near-Term Support

2015-04-01 17:20:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Under Pressure Amid Greek Headlines; Downward Trending Channel in Focus.

- USD/JPY Fails to Hold Above 120.00 Despite Calls for More Bank of Japan (BoJ) Support.

- USDOLLAR Pares Gains Despite Jump in Consumer Confidence- ADP, ISM Manufacturing in Focus.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite denying the headline, EUR/USD struggling to hold gains amid news that Greece will not delay its payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due on April 9; may continue to see the downward trending channel take shape as the long-term bearish RSI momentum remains in play.
  • String of lower-highs favors approach to ‘sell-bounces’ in EUR/USD, but need a break/close below 1.0710 (23.6% retracement) to favor a further decline in the exchange rate.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, with the ratio currently holding at -1.94.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • Lack of momentum to close above 120.00 (61.8% retracement) to 120.20 (50% expansion) may highlight the risk for more range-bound prices in USD/JPY; pair remains at risk of a further consolidation as the RSI retains the bearish trend carried over from December.
  • May see the Japanese Yen face additional headline risk in the days ahead as advisors to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe put increased pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to further embark on its easing cycle at the April 30 meeting.
  • Despite the long-term bullish sentiment surrounding USD/JPY, may continue to see a narrowing range as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: European Powder Keg?

EURAUD Scalps Target Weekly Opening Range- Longs at Risk Sub-1.4175

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

12045.40

12088.61

12026.77

-0.17

70.80%

EUR/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; 1.0710 Near-Term SupportUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index may continue find near-term resistance around 12,082 (61.8% expansion) amid the slew of dismal data prints coming out of the world’s largest economy; still waiting for a more meaningful break of the bearish RSI momentum to see a resumption of the bullish trend.
  • Keeping a close eye on the opening monthly range going into the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, but will need to watch the wires as Fed Chair Janet Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley are scheduled to speak later this week.
  • Failure to close above 12,082 (61.8% expansion) raises the risk for a near-term pullback, with 11,894 (61.8% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) holding up as key support.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 27)

11:00

--

4.6%

ADP Employment Change (MAR)

12:15

225K

189K

Markit Purchasing Manager Index- Manufacturing (MAR F)

13:45

55.3

ISM Manufacturing (MAR)

14:00

52.5

ISM Prices Paid (MAR)

14:00

38.0

Construction Spending (MoM) (FEB)

14:00

-0.1%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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