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Euro to Find Direction on Greek Resolution- Retail FX Remains Short

Euro to Find Direction on Greek Resolution- Retail FX Remains Short

2015-03-27 17:35:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Struggles to Preserve Bullish Momentum Ahead of Greek Proposal.

- GBP/USD Benefits From Hawkish BoE Forward-Guidance; Sterling-Crosses Favored.

- USDOLLAR Outlook Hinges on Fed Rhetoric Amid Growing Dissent- NFP on Radar.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • String of failed attempts to close above 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.0990 (50% retracement) may highlight a near-term top in EUR/USD; looks as though the RSI will retain the long-term bearish trend as the rebound fails to develop into a broader pattern.
  • Headlines surrounding Greece’s new bailout agreement may provide a relief bounce in the single currency as the EU stems the risk for contagion; positive outcome may also boost risk sentiment.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long EUR/USD since March 9, with the ratio currently holding at -1.99.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • Despite the failure to retain the bullish RSI momentum, the ongoing closes above 1.4710 (78.6% expansion) may continue to limit the downside risk for GBP/USD especially as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney preserves a hawkish forward-guidance for monetary policy.
  • Beyond the final 4Q GDP print for the U.K., an expansion in Mortgage Approvals along with a pickup in the GfK Consumer Confidence survey may heighten the appeal of the sterling especially against its non-USD crosses, such as EUR/GBP and GBP/AUD.
  • The failure to close out of the 1.4700-1.5000 region may continue to produce range-bound prices in GBP/USD as the BoE remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.

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Read More:

AUDUSD Reversal Scalp- Shorts Favored Sub 7850

The Weekly Volume Report: Next Volume Surge Key For USD Direction

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11971.71

12006.21

11954.77

0.06

58.15%

Euro to Find Direction on Greek Resolution- Retail FX Remains ShortUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the limited market reaction to the 4Q GDP report, the near-term correction in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index could be coming to an end as it appears to be carving a higher low around the 11,894 (61.8% retracement) region ahead of April.
  • Market participants are looking for another 250K rise in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), but the fresh batch of Fed rhetoric may drive volatility going into the end of March as central bank officials (Stanley Fischer, Jeffrey Lacker, Dennis Lockhart, Loretta Mester, Esther George, John Williams Janet Yellen, Lael Brainard and Narayana Kocherlakota) are scheduled to speak in the week ahead.
  • Still waiting for a close above 11,992 (38.2% retracement) along with a break of the bearish RSI momentum to favor ‘buying-dips’ in the greenback.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q F)

12:30

2.4%

2.2%

Personal Consumption (4Q F)

12:30

4.4%

4.4%

GDP Price Index (4Q F)

12:30

0.1%

0.1%

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (4Q F)

12:30

1.1%

1.1%

U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR F)

14:00

92.0

93.0

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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