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Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Rebound to Fizzle as Bullish RSI Momentum Comes Under Pressure.

- NZD/USD Bullish Break to Benefit From Widening New Zealand Trade Surplus.

- USDOLLAR Holds Post-FOMC Low; RSI Threatens Bearish Trend Following Sticky CPI.

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Lack of momentum to close above 1.4980-90 (38.2% retracement) may highlight a near-term topping process in GBP/USD; break of the bullish RSI momentum to favor downside targets, but need a close below 1.4700-10 (78.6% expansion) to favor a resumption of the downward trend.
  • Despite the weakness in the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI), a rebound in Retail Sales may mitigate the bearish sentiment surrounding the sterling heading into the end of March.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) ratio has narrowed to +1.52 as short-interest gains traction amongst the retail crowd.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • Despite the pullback from a fresh monthly high (7696), NZD/USD may continue to track higher over the next 24-hours of trade as New Zealand’s Trade Balance is expected to widen to 350M from 56M in January.
  • A further improvement in growth prospects may highlight a more bullish outlook for the kiwi especially as the bar remains high for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to revert back to its easing cycle.
  • Need a close above 0.7675(23.6% retracement) to 0.7700 (50% retracement) to favor a larger advance in NZD/USD.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Key Zone Coming Up For the Buck

Webinar: Scalps Favor Dollar Correction- EUR/USD Eyes FOMC Highs

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11954.86

11965.05

11892.26

0.18

87.40%

GBP/USD 1.4700 Support Vulnerable as Short-Interest Gathers PaceUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • With the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index holding above the low (11,886) set following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the greenback may face a larger rebound especially as the RSI threatens the bearish structures.
  • Despite the choppy reaction to the better-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) paired with dovish rhetoric from Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer, another expansion in demand for U.S. Durable Goods may support the greenback going into April.
  • As 11,894 (61.8% retracement) offers near-term support, next topside region of interest comes in around 11,992 (38.2% retracement).

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

12:30

0.2%

0.2%

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

12:30

-0.1%

0.0%

Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy (MoM) (FEB)

12:30

0.1%

0.2%

Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy (YoY) (FEB)

12:30

1.7%

1.7%

Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (FEB)

12:30

234.728

234.722

Consumer Price Index Core s.a. (FEB)

12:30

240.122

240.247

FHFA House Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

13:00

0.5%

0.3%

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR P)

13:45

54.6

55.3

New Home Sales (FEB)

14:00

464K

539K

New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

14:00

-3.5%

7.8%

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (MAR)

14:00

3

-8

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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