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USD/CAD Risks Larger Pullback on Bearish Momentum- 1.2400 in Sight

USD/CAD Risks Larger Pullback on Bearish Momentum- 1.2400 in Sight

2015-03-20 16:50:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USD/CAD Retains Bearish RSI Momentum Despite Dismal Canada Retail Sales.

- GBP/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs Ahead of U.K. CPI, Retail Sales.

- USDOLLAR Correction Remains in Play- Inflation Report in Focus.

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USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the dismal Canada Retail Sales report, USD/CAD may continue to consolidate as the bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains intact.
  • The stickiness in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may keep the Bank of Canada (BoC) on the sidelines; will keep a close eye on the near-term range between 1.2400-1.2800.
  • Have been seeing increased volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) amid the range-bound price action in USD/CAD as the retail crowd is now let-long on the pair, with the ratio currently holding at +1.17.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • Ongoing string of closes above 1.4700-10 (78.6% expansion) raises the risk for a larger rebound in GBP/USD as the RSI continues to come off of oversold territory.
  • Despite expectations of seeing a rebound in U.K. Retail Sales, a marked slowdown in the U.K.’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may produce further for the sterling as the disinflationary environment drags on interest rate expectations.
  • Still need a close above the 1.5000-15 (50% expansion) to favor a more meaningful correction in GBP/USD.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

The Weekly Volume Report: FOMC Sparks Volume Surge

Bullish USD Outlook Mired Post FOMC- JPY, GBP & Gold in Focus

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11980.76

12093.53

11975.84

-0.90

145.39%

USD/CAD Risks Larger Pullback on Bearish Momentum- 1.2400 in SightUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Ongoing series of lower-highs in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index raise the risk for a larger correction; will revert back to ‘buying dips’ in the greenback once the RSI breaks out of the bearish momentum.
  • Despite expectations of seeing another annualized 0.1% contraction in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), the core rate of inflation may help to keep the dollar afloat as the figure is projected to climb an annualized 1.7% in February after expanding 1.6% the month prior.
  • Will continue to watch the low following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, but need a close below 11,894 (61.8% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) to favor a more meaningful decline in the USDOLLAR.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 14)

12:30

293K

291K

Continuing Claims (MAR 7)

12:30

2400K

2417K

Philadelphia Fed Business Optimism Survey (MAR)

14:00

7.0

5.0

Leading Index (FEB)

14:00

0.2%

0.2%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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