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GBP/USD Holds 1.47 Support Despite Dovish BoE- Divergence Takes Shape

GBP/USD Holds 1.47 Support Despite Dovish BoE- Divergence Takes Shape

David Song,

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Struggles as BoE’s Haldane Sees Risk for Rate Cut/Hike.

- USD/CAD 1.2800 Resistance in Focus Ahead of Canada CPI, Retail Sales.

- USDOLLAR Retains Bullish Formation Post-FOMC; Inflation to Contract for Second Month.

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GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • GBP/USD under pressure as Bank of England’s (BoE) Andy Haldane argues that the central bank could cut or hike the U.K. benchmark interest rate; bearish sentiment surrounding the sterling may continue to take shape ahead of the U.K. election in May as the BoE remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.
  • Nevertheless, string of closes above 1.4700-10 (78.6% expansion) raises the risk for a larger rebound in GBP/USD as the RSI continues to come off of oversold territory.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD since February 26, with the ratio now climbing to +2.29.


USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD may continue to face range-bound prices as the bearish RSI momentum remains intact; need a topside break in the oscillator accompanied by a close above the 1.2800 resistance zone to favor a continuation of the bullish trend.
  • A slowdown in Canada’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) along with another decline in Retail Sales may act as the fundamental catalyst to spark a further advance in USD/CAD should the data prints fuel bets for another Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut.
  • Close above the 1.2800 handle should expose the next topside area of interest coming in around 1.2940 (78.6% retracement/50% retracement).

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Read More:

Price & Time: Euro Correction Already Over?

GBPCAD at Support- Scalps Target 1.8785 Ahead of Key Data

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12104.3612110.9811947.841.07212.03%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite bearish reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, the near-term outlook for the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index remains supportive as price and the RSI retains the bullish formations.
  • The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out next week may produce headwinds for the greenback as the headline reading is expected to contract an annualized 0.1% for the second consecutive month in February.
  • Should the USDOLLAR carve out a higher-low going into the end of March, may pave the way for a more meaningful assault at 12,176 (78.6% retracement).

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Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 14)12:30293K291K
Continuing Claims (MAR 7)12:302400K2417K
Philadelphia Fed Business Optimism Survey (MAR)14:007.05.0
Leading Index (FEB)14:000.2%0.2%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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