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USD/JPY Continues to Coil Ahead of BoJ, Fed- Fresh Highs on Radar

USD/JPY Continues to Coil Ahead of BoJ, Fed- Fresh Highs on Radar

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Outlook Hinges on Policy Divergence Should Bank of Japan (BoJ) Fail to Surprise.

- AUD/USD Bearish Momentum in Focus Going Into Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes.

- USDOLLAR Risks Choppy Price Action Ahead of FOMC on Dismal Data.

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting may spur a limited market reaction in USD/JPY as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains in no rush to further embark on the qualitative/quantitative easing (QQE) program.
  • USD/JPY may continue to take cues from broader risk trends until we see a meaningful fundamental catalyst to resume the bullish trend; keeping a close eye on the bullish RSI momentum with the next topside objectives coming in around 122.40 (78.6% retracement) to 1.2280 (78.6% expansion.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY, with the ratio currently sitting at +1.67.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • Still favor the approach to ‘sell-bounces’ in AUD/USD as the bearish structures remain in play; will continue to watch former support zones around 0.7720 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7740 (78.6% expansion) for new resistance.
  • Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains on hold, will look for a greater willingness to lower the cash rate in 2015 along with a toughened verbal intervention on the aussie to favor a further decline in the exchange rate.
  • Need close below 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) to expose the next downside target around 0.7490-7500 (61.8% expansion).

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Read More:

USD/JPY to Take Cues From FOMC as BoJ Endorse Wait-and-See Approach

The Weekly Volume Report: Euro Volume Spike A Negative?

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12124.6512140.1412114.97-0.0743.57%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the pullback in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index, risk remains skewed to the upside as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in overbought territory.
  • Will keep a close eye on the data prints scheduled for ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) March 18 policy meeting amid the recent trend of weaker-than-expected data prints.
  • Will watch former resistance zones for near-term support, with the first region of interest coming in around 11,997 (100% expansion) to 12,017 (50% expansion).

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ReleaseGMTExpectedActual
Empire Manufacturing (MAR)12:308.00
Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)13:150.2%
Capacity Utilization (FEB)13:1579.5%
Manufacturing Production (SIC) (FEB)13:150.0%
NAHB Housing Market Index (MAR)14:0056
Net Long-Term TIC Flows (JAN)20:00--
Total Net TIC Dlows (JAN)20:00--

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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