Talking Points:
- USD/JPY Outlook Hinges on Policy Divergence Should Bank of Japan (BoJ) Fail to Surprise.
- AUD/USD Bearish Momentum in Focus Going Into Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes.
- USDOLLAR Risks Choppy Price Action Ahead of FOMC on Dismal Data.
For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting may spur a limited market reaction in USD/JPY as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains in no rush to further embark on the qualitative/quantitative easing (QQE) program.
- USD/JPY may continue to take cues from broader risk trends until we see a meaningful fundamental catalyst to resume the bullish trend; keeping a close eye on the bullish RSI momentum with the next topside objectives coming in around 122.40 (78.6% retracement) to 1.2280 (78.6% expansion.
- DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY, with the ratio currently sitting at +1.67.
AUD/USD
- Still favor the approach to ‘sell-bounces’ in AUD/USD as the bearish structures remain in play; will continue to watch former support zones around 0.7720 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7740 (78.6% expansion) for new resistance.
- Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains on hold, will look for a greater willingness to lower the cash rate in 2015 along with a toughened verbal intervention on the aussie to favor a further decline in the exchange rate.
- Need close below 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) to expose the next downside target around 0.7490-7500 (61.8% expansion).
Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!
Read More:
USD/JPY to Take Cues From FOMC as BoJ Endorse Wait-and-See Approach
The Weekly Volume Report: Euro Volume Spike A Negative?
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
| Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 12124.65 | 12140.14 | 12114.97 | -0.07 | 43.57% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Despite the pullback in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index, risk remains skewed to the upside as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in overbought territory.
- Will keep a close eye on the data prints scheduled for ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) March 18 policy meeting amid the recent trend of weaker-than-expected data prints.
- Will watch former resistance zones for near-term support, with the first region of interest coming in around 11,997 (100% expansion) to 12,017 (50% expansion).
Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!
| Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empire Manufacturing (MAR) | 12:30 | 8.00 | |
| Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB) | 13:15 | 0.2% | |
| Capacity Utilization (FEB) | 13:15 | 79.5% | |
| Manufacturing Production (SIC) (FEB) | 13:15 | 0.0% | |
| NAHB Housing Market Index (MAR) | 14:00 | 56 | |
| Net Long-Term TIC Flows (JAN) | 20:00 | -- | |
| Total Net TIC Dlows (JAN) | 20:00 | -- |
Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.
Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand
Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.
New to FX? Watch this Video
Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums
