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AUD/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short; 0.7750 in Focus

AUD/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short; 0.7750 in Focus

David Song,

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short Despite 15.6K Rise in Australia Employment.

- NZD/USD Risks Larger Rebound as RBNZ Retains Neutral Tone- Double Bottom in Place?

- USDOLLAR Approaching Channel Resistance Ahead of U.S. Retail Sales.

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AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the limited market reaction to the 15.6K rise in Australia Employment, AUD/USD faces a risk for a larger rebound as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snaps back from 30.
  • Ongoing closes above 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) to provide conviction/confirmation for a more meaningful rebound in AUD/USD; will watch former support zones around 0.7720 (1618.% expansion) to 0.7750 (23.6% expansion) for new resistance.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short AUD/USD since March 10, with the ratio currently holding at -1.82.


NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • NZD/USD appears to be caving a double-bottom as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lays out a more neutral tone for monetary policy.
  • Even though the RBNZ retains the verbal intervention on the kiwi, NZD/USD may face a larger correction as Governor Graeme Wheeler argues that New Zealand remains in a different situation to those who are cutting interest rates.
  • Key topside region of interest stands at former support around 0.7600 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7620 (50% expansion).

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Read More:

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GBPNZD Long Scalps at Risk Sub 2.0850- Reversal Play?

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12064.8612122.7212021.82-0.34178.45%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may continue to come off of channel resistance as U.S. Retail Sales disappoints for the third-consecutive month; will the Fed drop the ‘patience’ language at the March 18 meeting?
  • Keeping a close eye on the RSI as it fails to push above 80 and comes off of overbought territory, but the long-term outlook remains bullish as the Fed remains well on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015.
  • A break/close below former resistance zone around 11,997(100% expansion) to 12,007 (50% expansion) may expose 11,864 (23.6% expansion).

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Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)12:300.3%-0.6%
Advance Retail Sales ex Auto (MoM) (FEB)12:300.5%-0.1%
Advance Retail Sales ex Auto & Gas (MoM) (FEB)12:300.3%-0.2%
Advance Retail Sales Control Group (FEB)12:300.4%0.0%
Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 7)12:30305K289K
Continuing Claims (FEB 28)12:302400K2418K
Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB)12:300.2%0.4%
Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB)12:30-8.9%-9.4%
Business Inventories (JAN)14:000.1%0.0%
Household Change in Net Worth (4Q)16:00--$1517B
Monthly Budget Statement (FEB)18:00-$188.5B

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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