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Retail Crowd Remains Net-Long EUR/USD- 1.0970 in Focus Ahead of NFP

Retail Crowd Remains Net-Long EUR/USD- 1.0970 in Focus Ahead of NFP

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Retail-Crowd Remains Net-Long Following ECB- Bearish Momentum in Focus.

- USD/JPY Climbs to Fresh Monthly High- Breakout on Tap?

- USDOLLAR Breaks Resistance- Topside Targets Remain on Radar Despite Mixed U.S. Data.

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the upbeat tone laid out by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi, downside targets remain favored for EUR/USD as the RSI dips into oversold territory.
  • 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) remains on the radar going into the Euro-Zone’s preliminary 4Q GDP report & will continue to favor the approach to ‘sell-bounces’ as the bearish momentum gathers pace.
  • Despite the fresh lows, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long EUR/USD since March 3, with the ratio currently holding at +1.21.


USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • USD/JPY runs greater risk for a more meaningful advance as it attempts to breakout of the triangle/wedge formation; continuation pattern favors the approach to ‘buy-dips’ in dollar-yen.
  • Looks as though former resistance around 119.60 (23.6% retracement) to 119.80 (100% expansion) may offer near-term support ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision on March 17.
  • Would like to see a close above the last swing-high (120.44) for conviction/confirmation of a bullish breakout in USD/JPY.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Happy Anniversary GBP/USD

Trade Setups in EUR-crosses and Expectations for ECB Meeting

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11916.1811920.3611869.870.37100.94%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar topside targets remain in focus ahead of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) as it breaks to a fresh monthly highs.
  • Despite expectations for another 235K rise in NFP, will keep a close eye on the wage growth figures as Average Hourly Earnings are projected to slow to an annualized 2.1% from 2.2% the month prior.
  • Will continue to look for opportunities to buy the USDOLLAR, with the next topside region of interest coming in around 11,970 (161.8% expansion)

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Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (FEB)12:30--20.9%
Nonfarm Productivity (4Q F)13:30-2.3%-2.2%
Unit Labor Costs (4Q F)13:303.3%4.1%
Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 28)13:30295K320K
Continuing Claims (FEB 21)13:302395K2421K
Factory Orders (JAN)15:000.2%-0.2%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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