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Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Struggles to Retain Bullish RSI Momentum Ahead of BoE Meeting.

- EUR/USD Retail Crowd Turns Net-Long Ahead of March Despite Bearish Break.

- USDOLLAR Holds Monthly Opening Range Ahead of Preliminary 4Q GDP Report.

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Lack of momentum to break/close above former support zone around 1.5510-1.5550 may highlight a near-term top especially as the RSI struggles to retain the bullish momentum from earlier this year.
  • Despite expectations of seeing the Bank of England (BoE) retain its current policy at the March 5 meeting, may see a bullish reaction in sterling as Governor Mark Carney continues to prepare U.K. household and businesses for higher borrowing-costs.
  • A break back below 1.5300 (23.6% retracement) to 1.5320 (78.6% retracement) to negate bullish GBP/USD and raises the risk for a resumption of the bearish trend.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has now turned net-long EUR/USD following the slew of U.S. data from earlier this morning; seeing higher opening interest going into the end of the month.
  • The break of the wedge/triangle favors the approach to ‘sell-bounces’ in EUR/USD as the RSI retains the bearish momentum; may see the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on March 5 act as a fundamental catalyst for a further decline in EUR/USD should President Mario Draghi show a greater willingness to further embark on the easing cycle.
  • Close below 1.1185 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement) raises the risk for fresh yearly lows in EUR/USD.

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Read More:

Price & Time: USD/CAD On Shaky Ground?

Scalping AUD/USD Opening Range Break- 7850 Support

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11818.05

11823.54

11737.29

0.58

145.57%

GBP/USD Rebound Stalls at Former Support- Bearish RSI Break in FocusUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar looks poised to retain the bullish trend going into March as it holds the monthly opening range, while the RSI threatens the bearish momentum.
  • Despite the sticky CPI prints, a marked downward revision in the 4Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may keep the greenback largely range-bound going into the end of the month.
  • Failure to test 11,721 (38.2%) keeps the bullish setup intact, but need a close below 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to expose the next level of interest around 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

13:30

-0.6%

-0.7%

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

13:30

-0.1%

-0.1%

Consumer Price Index ex Food/Energy (MoM) (JAN)

13:30

0.1%

0.2%

Consumer Price Index ex Food/Energy (YoY) (JAN)

13:30

1.6%

1.6%

Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (JAN)

13:30

233.680

233.707

Consumer Price Index Core s.a. (JAN)

13:30

239.670

239.871

Durable Goods Orders (JAN)

13:30

1.6%

2.8%

Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (JAN)

13:30

0.5%

0.3%

Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (JAN)

13:30

0.3%

0.6%

Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipments ex Aircrafts (JAN)

13:30

0.2%

-0.3%

Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 21)

13:30

290K

313K

Continuing Claims (FEB 14)

13:30

2395K

2401K

FHFA House Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

14:00

0.5%

0.8%

House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (4Q)

14:00

--

1.40%

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (FEB)

16:00

3

1

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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