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GBP/USD Rebound Stalls at Former Support- Bearish RSI Break in Focus

GBP/USD Rebound Stalls at Former Support- Bearish RSI Break in Focus

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Struggles to Retain Bullish RSI Momentum Ahead of BoE Meeting.

- EUR/USD Retail Crowd Turns Net-Long Ahead of March Despite Bearish Break.

- USDOLLAR Holds Monthly Opening Range Ahead of Preliminary 4Q GDP Report.

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GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Lack of momentum to break/close above former support zone around 1.5510-1.5550 may highlight a near-term top especially as the RSI struggles to retain the bullish momentum from earlier this year.
  • Despite expectations of seeing the Bank of England (BoE) retain its current policy at the March 5 meeting, may see a bullish reaction in sterling as Governor Mark Carney continues to prepare U.K. household and businesses for higher borrowing-costs.
  • A break back below 1.5300 (23.6% retracement) to 1.5320 (78.6% retracement) to negate bullish GBP/USD and raises the risk for a resumption of the bearish trend.


EUR/USD Daily Chart
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has now turned net-long EUR/USD following the slew of U.S. data from earlier this morning; seeing higher opening interest going into the end of the month.
  • The break of the wedge/triangle favors the approach to ‘sell-bounces’ in EUR/USD as the RSI retains the bearish momentum; may see the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on March 5 act as a fundamental catalyst for a further decline in EUR/USD should President Mario Draghi show a greater willingness to further embark on the easing cycle.
  • Close below 1.1185 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement) raises the risk for fresh yearly lows in EUR/USD.

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Read More:

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11818.0511823.5411737.290.58145.57%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar looks poised to retain the bullish trend going into March as it holds the monthly opening range, while the RSI threatens the bearish momentum.
  • Despite the sticky CPI prints, a marked downward revision in the 4Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may keep the greenback largely range-bound going into the end of the month.
  • Failure to test 11,721 (38.2%) keeps the bullish setup intact, but need a close below 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to expose the next level of interest around 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

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Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)13:30-0.6%-0.7%
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)13:30-0.1%-0.1%
Consumer Price Index ex Food/Energy (MoM) (JAN)13:300.1%0.2%
Consumer Price Index ex Food/Energy (YoY) (JAN)13:301.6%1.6%
Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (JAN)13:30233.680233.707
Consumer Price Index Core s.a. (JAN)13:30239.670239.871
Durable Goods Orders (JAN)13:301.6%2.8%
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (JAN)13:300.5%0.3%
Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (JAN)13:300.3%0.6%
Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipments ex Aircrafts (JAN)13:300.2%-0.3%
Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 21)13:30290K313K
Continuing Claims (FEB 14)13:302395K2401K
FHFA House Price Index (MoM) (DEC)14:000.5%0.8%
House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (4Q)14:00--1.40%
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (FEB)16:0031

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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