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Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short EUR/USD- GBP Retains Bullish Momentum

Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short EUR/USD- GBP Retains Bullish Momentum

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short Amid Greek Deadlock.

- GBP/USD Bullish Momentum in Focus Ahead of U.K. Jobless Claims, BoE Minutes.

- USDOLLAR Pares Decline Ahead of FOMC Minutes to Retain Range-Bound Prices.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the stalemate between Greece and the EU, EUR/USD looks poised to retain the range-bound price action amid the ongoing string of closes above the 1.1300 handle.
  • Long-term outlook remains bearish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the downward trend from back in October 2013.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD throughout the Greek bailout talks, with the ratio currently sitting at -1.76.

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • GBP/USD may face a larger pullback should the RSI fail to retain the bullish momentum carried over from the previous month especially as the pair breaks out of the descending channel from back in July.
  • As the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) highlights stickiness in core inflation, the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes may continue to highlight a hawkish forward-guidance for monetary policy as the central bank anticipates faster wage growth in 2015.
  • Key region of interest continues to come in around the former support zones around 1.5500-15.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Cable At A Crossroads

AUDUSD Candles and Channels Create Concern (for bears)

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11791.06

11809.48

11768.4

-0.06

64.66%

Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short EUR/USD- GBP Retains Bullish MomentumUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar looks poised for another close above 11,774 (50% expansion) despite the weaker-than-expected data prints; will continue to watch the monthly opening range.
  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes may heighten the appeal of the USDOLLAR should the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric boost speculation for a rate hike in mid-2015.
  • Still waiting for a break/close out of the 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) range.

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Empire Manufacturing (FEB)

13:30

8.00

7.78

NAHB Housing Market Index (FEB)

15:00

58

55

Fed’s Charles Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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