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USD/JPY Pullback in Focus Ahead of Japan 4Q GDP, BoJ Meeting

USD/JPY Pullback in Focus Ahead of Japan 4Q GDP, BoJ Meeting

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Carves Lower-High as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Endorses Wait-and-See Approach.

- GBP/USD Breaks Out as Bank of England (BoE) Retains Hawkish Forward-Guidance.

- USDOLLAR Carves Bearish Outside Day Following Dismal Retail Sales Report.

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USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/JPY spikes lower as Bank of Japan (BoJ) argues additional monetary support could be counterproductive especially as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation target.
  • May see a further consolidation in USD/JPY ahead of the BoJ rate decision on February 18 as the advance 4Q GDP report is expected to show the Japanese economy climbing out of the technical recession.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since December 8, with the ratio currently holding at +1.57.


GBP/USD Daily Chart

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Read More:

USDOLLAR - Continues To Fail At Resistance, Eyeing Trend Support

Price & Time: Overnight Volatility In USD/JPY But Key Support Holds

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11797.6711887.3311793.18-0.55133.95%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar falls back from a fresh monthly high of 11,886 following the dismal U.S. Retail Sales report; will keep a close eye on U. of Michigan Confidence on tap tomorrow as the survey is expected to hold steady at 98.1 in February.
  • May see Fed rate expectations diminish as weak energy prices fail to drive private-sector consumption; may share the same fate as its U.K. counterpart as wage growth continues to lag.
  • Bearish outside day candle may highlight a larger decline ahead, but will keep a close eye on the 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) range.

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Advance Retail Sales (JAN)13:30-0.4%-0.8%
Advance Retail Sales ex Auto (JAN)13:30-0.5%-0.9%
Advance Retail Sales ex Auto & Gas (JAN)13:300.4%0.2%
Advance Retail Sales Control Group (JAN)13:300.4%0.1%
Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 7)13:30287K304K
Continuing Claims (JAN 31)13:302400K2354K
Bloomberg Inventories (DEC)15:000.2%0.1%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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