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USD/JPY Pullback in Focus Ahead of Japan 4Q GDP, BoJ Meeting

USD/JPY Pullback in Focus Ahead of Japan 4Q GDP, BoJ Meeting

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Carves Lower-High as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Endorses Wait-and-See Approach.

- GBP/USD Breaks Out as Bank of England (BoE) Retains Hawkish Forward-Guidance.

- USDOLLAR Carves Bearish Outside Day Following Dismal Retail Sales Report.

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/JPY spikes lower as Bank of Japan (BoJ) argues additional monetary support could be counterproductive especially as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation target.
  • May see a further consolidation in USD/JPY ahead of the BoJ rate decision on February 18 as the advance 4Q GDP report is expected to show the Japanese economy climbing out of the technical recession.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since December 8, with the ratio currently holding at +1.57.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • GBP/USD showing a more meaningful attempt to break out of the downward trending channel dating back to July as the Bank of England (BoE) anticipates stronger wage growth and continues to prepare U.K. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs.
  • However, as the BoE cuts its 2015 inflation forecast, a marked slowdown in the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may generate short-term headwinds for the sterling as the BoE remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.
  • Looks poised for a larger recover as the bullish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) takes shape, with the next region of interest coming in around 1.5420 (78.6% expansion) to 1.5440 (78.6% retracement).

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Read More:

USDOLLAR - Continues To Fail At Resistance, Eyeing Trend Support

Price & Time: Overnight Volatility In USD/JPY But Key Support Holds

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11797.6711887.3311793.18-0.55133.95%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar falls back from a fresh monthly high of 11,886 following the dismal U.S. Retail Sales report; will keep a close eye on U. of Michigan Confidence on tap tomorrow as the survey is expected to hold steady at 98.1 in February.
  • May see Fed rate expectations diminish as weak energy prices fail to drive private-sector consumption; may share the same fate as its U.K. counterpart as wage growth continues to lag.
  • Bearish outside day candle may highlight a larger decline ahead, but will keep a close eye on the 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) range.

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ReleaseGMTExpectedActual
Advance Retail Sales (JAN)13:30-0.4%-0.8%
Advance Retail Sales ex Auto (JAN)13:30-0.5%-0.9%
Advance Retail Sales ex Auto & Gas (JAN)13:300.4%0.2%
Advance Retail Sales Control Group (JAN)13:300.4%0.1%
Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 7)13:30287K304K
Continuing Claims (JAN 31)13:302400K2354K
Bloomberg Inventories (DEC)15:000.2%0.1%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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