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EUR/USD Rebound in Focus as Retail FX Crowd Turns Net-Short

EUR/USD Rebound in Focus as Retail FX Crowd Turns Net-Short

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Risks Larger Rebound as Retail FX Turns Net-Short; RSI in Focus.

- AUD/USD Oversold Ahead of RBA Amid Growing Bets for Rate Cut.

- USDOLLAR to Face Advance 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though the long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish, the pair may face a larger rebound as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) comes off of oversold territory.
  • However, the Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may dampen the appeal of the single currency as the headline reading for inflation is expected to contract 0.5% in January.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) appears to be showing a more dynamic shift in FX positioning as the retail crowd is net-short EUR/USD, with the ratio currently sitting at -1.94.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • AUD/USD remains at risk for a further decline ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting on February 2 as the RSI pushes deeper into oversold territory.
  • Seeing growing expectations for a RBA rate cut amid the global easing cycle; according to a Bloomberg survey, 20 of the 23 economists polled see Governor Glenn Stevens keeping the benchmark interest rate on hold at 2.50%.
  • Next downside target comes in around 0.7680 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7720 (161.8% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: Kiwi Breakdown Continues

GBPAUD Weekly Opening Range Setup- Long Scalps at Risk Sub-1.92

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11873.06

11874.09

11799.3

0.57

110.36%

EUR/USD Rebound in Focus as Retail FX Crowd Turns Net-ShortUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the limited market reaction to the U.S. data prints from earlier this morning, Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may appreciate further as the RSI pushes back above 70.
  • The advance 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may set the tone for the February trade as the growth rate is expected to advance an annualized 3.0% after expanding 5.0% during the three-months through September.
  • As USDOLLAR tests the monthly opening range, the next topside objective comes in around 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 24)

13:30

300K

265K

Continuing Claims (JAN 17)

13:30

2405K

2385K

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)

15:00

0.5%

-3.7%

Pending Home Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

15:00

10.8%

8.5%

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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