Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
EUR/USD Rebound in Focus as Retail FX Crowd Turns Net-Short

EUR/USD Rebound in Focus as Retail FX Crowd Turns Net-Short

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Risks Larger Rebound as Retail FX Turns Net-Short; RSI in Focus.

- AUD/USD Oversold Ahead of RBA Amid Growing Bets for Rate Cut.

- USDOLLAR to Face Advance 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though the long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish, the pair may face a larger rebound as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) comes off of oversold territory.
  • However, the Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may dampen the appeal of the single currency as the headline reading for inflation is expected to contract 0.5% in January.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) appears to be showing a more dynamic shift in FX positioning as the retail crowd is net-short EUR/USD, with the ratio currently sitting at -1.94.


AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • AUD/USD remains at risk for a further decline ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting on February 2 as the RSI pushes deeper into oversold territory.
  • Seeing growing expectations for a RBA rate cut amid the global easing cycle; according to a Bloomberg survey, 20 of the 23 economists polled see Governor Glenn Stevens keeping the benchmark interest rate on hold at 2.50%.
  • Next downside target comes in around 0.7680 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7720 (161.8% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: Kiwi Breakdown Continues

GBPAUD Weekly Opening Range Setup- Long Scalps at Risk Sub-1.92

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11873.0611874.0911799.30.57110.36%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the limited market reaction to the U.S. data prints from earlier this morning, Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may appreciate further as the RSI pushes back above 70.
  • The advance 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may set the tone for the February trade as the growth rate is expected to advance an annualized 3.0% after expanding 5.0% during the three-months through September.
  • As USDOLLAR tests the monthly opening range, the next topside objective comes in around 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 24)13:30300K265K
Continuing Claims (JAN 17)13:302405K2385K
Pending Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)15:000.5%-3.7%
Pending Home Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)15:0010.8%8.5%

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.