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  • 🇺🇸 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 60.5 Expected: 61.5 Previous: 61.1
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 CB Leading Index MoM (AUG) due at 14:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.7% Previous: 0.9%
  • Bank of England left policy measures unchanged as expected with the Bank Rate remaining at 0.1% and gilt purchases at GBP 875bln.Get your $GBP market update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • $USD pulling back from that Sept high that was set after FOMC yday price action still messy, but a semblance of support around the 93 handle $DXY
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) due at 13:45 GMT (15min) Expected: 61.5 Previous: 61.1
  • Citi bring forward BoE rate hike forecast to Feb 2022 with a 15bps hike and 25bps in May $GBP
  • 🇺🇸 Jobless Claims 4-week Average (SEP/18) Actual: 335.75K Previous: 336.5K
  • 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (18/SEP) Actual: 351K Expected: 320K Previous: 335K
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  • 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (AUG) Actual: 0.29 Previous: 0.75
EUR/USD Downside Targets Remain Favored- 1.1300 in Focus

EUR/USD Downside Targets Remain Favored- 1.1300 in Focus

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Slips to Fresh Monthly Low as ECB Implements EUR 60B/Month QE Program.

- AUD/USD Range Vulnerable to Slowing China Recovery; RSI Structure in Focus.

- USDOLLAR Extends Advance Ahead of FOMC Meeting; Topside Targets on Radar.

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Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD tags a fresh monthly low of 1.1403 as European Central Bank (ECB) unveils EUR 60B/month bond-purchase program, which will run through September 2015.
  • Will retain the approach to sell-bounces in EUR/USD as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in oversold territory, with the next key downside target coming in around 1.1300 (161.8% expansion) to 1.1310 (100% expansion).
  • Seeing increased volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) as retail-crowd turns net-long EUR/USD following the ECB interest rate decision, with the ratio currently standing at +1.01.


  • AUD/USD may preserve the range-bound price action over the remainder of the week as the pair continues to hold above the monthly opening low, while the bullish RSI momentum takes shape.
  • However, aussie may face additional headwinds over the next 24-hours of trade as China’s HSBC Manufacturing survey is expected to show another contraction in business outputs.
  • Nevertheless, need a bearish break in RSI along with a close below 0.8000-20 to favor

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Read More:

USDMXN Head-and-shoulders On Radar

Price & Time: Regime Change In Gold

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






EUR/USD Downside Targets Remain Favored- 1.1300 in FocusUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar breaks out ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting on January 28; topside targets favored as RSI pushes back into overbought territory.
  • Interested to see the Fed’s response to the wave of global monetary support especially given the 2015 rotation within the committee.
  • Close above 11,721 (38.2% expansion) should provide conviction/confirmation for a move into 11,774 (50% expansion).

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Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 17)



Continuing Claims (JAN 10)



FHFA House Price Index (MoM) (NOV)



Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (JAN)



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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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