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NZD/USD 0.7600 Support at Risk on Dismal 4Q New Zealand CPI

NZD/USD 0.7600 Support at Risk on Dismal 4Q New Zealand CPI

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- NZD Fails to Benefit From Global Dairy Auction; 4Q CPI to Slow for Second Straight Quarter

- USD/CAD Pushes Fresh Monthly Highs Ahead of Bank of Canada (BoC) Meeting.

- USDOLLAR Range Remains at Risk as RSI Retains Bullish Momentum.

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NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • NZD/USD shows a limited reaction to the 3.8% rise in Whole Milk Power following the Global Dairy Trade auction; may face additional headwinds over the next 24-hours of trade as the 4Q Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to slow further.
  • As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bearish momentum, downside targets remained favored with the monthly opening low (0.7617) in focus.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has been net-long NZD/USD since January 13, with the ratio currently holding at +2.03


USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD climbs to a fresh monthly high of 1.2111 ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision; remains at risk for a further advance as RSI continues to hold in overbought territory.
  • Even though the BoC is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.00%, Governor Stephen Poloz may continue to highlight a dovish tone for monetary policy amid the ongoing decline in oil prices.
  • Need close above 1.2095 (100% expansion)to 1.2120 (23.6% retracement) to favor a further advance.

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Read More:

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GBPUSD Potential Double Bottom at Long-term Support

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






NZD/USD 0.7600 Support at Risk on Dismal 4Q New Zealand CPIUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Will continue to watch the monthly range in Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar as it struggles to break out of the range-bound price action; will stay supportive of dollar strength as long as the RSI preserves the bullish momentum carried over from the previous year.
  • Waiting for close above 11,721 (38.2% expansion) for confirmation/conviction for another leg higher in USDOLLAR along with the RSI pushing back above 70.
  • Despite the range-bound price action, next topside target comes in around 11,774 (50% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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