Talking Points:
- EUR/USD Downside Targets Remain Favored Ahead of ECB Meeting, Greek Elections
- AUD/USD Range Vulnerable to Slowing China 4Q GDP.
- USDOLLAR Continues to Track Sideways Ahead of CPI, U. of Michigan Confidence.
For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- EUR/USD extends decline and remains at risk for a further decline especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushes deeper into oversold territory.
- Beyond expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) to announce a QE program range from EUR 500B to EUR 1T, the Greek elections may also undermine the outlook for the single currency should the region struggle to form a government.
- Even though the retail crowd remains net-long EUR/USD, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) narrows going into the weekend, with the ratio currently standing at +1.26.
AUD/USD
- Will continue to watch the short-term string of higher highs & lows in AUD/USD, but may continue to face range-bound prices in the week ahead should it fail to close above 0.8210-20 (23.6% retracement)
- Despite the light economic docket for Australia, China’s 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may drag on the higher-yielding currency as the growth rate is expected to slow to an annualized 7.2% from 7.3% during the three-months through September.
- Close above 0.8210-20 should spark a larger rebound and may expose 0.8310 (78.6% expansion) to 0.8320 (38.2% retracement).
Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!
Read More:
Assessing the Aftermath of SNB Shocker from EUR’s Perspective
AUDUSD Rally at Risk- Scalps Target 8300 Resistance
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
| Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 11675.78 | 11714.28 | 11620.44 | 0.36 | 183.92% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Despite the stronger-than-expected headline reading for U.S. inflation, looks as though the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar will preserve the opening monthly range for now.
- Topside targets remain favored amid as long as the greenback continues to close above 11,623 (23.6% retracement), while the RSI retains the bullish momentum.
- Will continue to watch support and resistance on USDOLLAR as the greenback looks poised to face range-bound prices going into the market holiday on Monday.
Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!
| Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index (MoM) (DEC) | 13:30 | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC) | 13:30 | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy (MoM) (DEC) | 13:30 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy (YoY) (DEC) | 13:30 | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (DEC) | 13:30 | 234.611 | 234.813 |
| Consumer Price Index Core s.a. (DEC) | 13:30 | 239.635 | 239.339 |
| Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC) | 14:15 | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Capacity Utilization (DEC) | 14:15 | 79.9% | 79.7% |
| Manufacturing Production (SIC) (DEC) | 14:15 | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN P) | 15:00 | 94.1 | 98.2 |
| Total Net TIC Flows (NOV) | 21:00 | -- | |
| Net Long-Term TIC Flows (NOV) | 21:00 | -- |
Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.
Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand
Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.
New to FX? Watch this Video
Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums
