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Retail FX Remains Net-Long EUR/USD Ahead of U.S. CPI, ECB Meeting

Retail FX Remains Net-Long EUR/USD Ahead of U.S. CPI, ECB Meeting

2015-01-15 18:55:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Slips to Fresh Monthly Low Following SNB; ECB QE Bets Priced-In?

- USD/CAD Risks Larger Correction as RSI Threatens Bullish Momentum.

- USDOLLAR Continues to Track Sideways Ahead of CPI, U. of Michigan Confidence.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD extends decline following the surprise rate cut from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to announce its quantitative easing (QE) program next week.
  • Seeing market forecasts between EUR 500B to EUR 1T for the ECB’s QE program, but may see limited details surrounding the non-standard measure should the council look to buy more time.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) show retail crowd remains net-long EUR/USD, with the ratio now climbing to +1.40.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD risks a larger pullback amid the lack of momentum to close above 1.2000; want to see a bearish break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to favor the downside targets.
  • Will keep a close eye on oil prices given recent correlation with the Canadian dollar; may see a near-term recovery in crude as it fails to close below the $45 handle.
  • Will watch former resistance zones for new support on a break & close below 1.1790 (78.6% expansion) -1.1800 (38.2% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: A Central Bank Blinks

Implications for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP after SNB Floor Collapses

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11637.96

11664.65

11585.11

0.07

164.06%

Retail FX Remains Net-Long EUR/USD Ahead of U.S. CPI, ECB MeetingUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Keeping a close eye on the closing price for Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar amid the range-bound price action; .
  • U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may drag on interest rate expectations on the back of falling energy prices; core rate of inflation may have a larger impact on the dollar as Fed sees the oil decline as transitory.
  • Given string of lower highs & lows this week, dismal CPI print may spur a more meaningful move at 11,567 (38.2% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Empire Manufacturing (JAN)

13:30

5.00

9.95

Producer Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

13:30

-0.4%

-0.3%

Producer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

13:30

0.1%

0.3%

Producer Price Index ex Food, Energy (MoM) (DEC)

13:30

0.0%

0.1%

Producer Price Index ex Food, Energy (YoY) (DEC)

13:30

1.0%

1.1%

Producer Price Index ex Food, Energy, Trade (MoM) (DEC)

13:30

1.9%

2.1%

Producer Price Index ex Food, Energy, Trade (YoY) (DEC)

13:30

--

1.3%

Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 10)

13:30

290K

316K

Continuing Claims (JAN 3)

13:30

2400K

2424K

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (JAN)

15:00

18.7

6.3

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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