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Euro Struggles Ahead of Greek Election- USD/CAD Carves Lower Highs

Euro Struggles Ahead of Greek Election- USD/CAD Carves Lower Highs

2014-12-19 17:15:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Slips to Fresh Monthly Low Ahead of Second-Round of Greek Election.

- USD/CAD Continues to Face Range-Bound Prices Even as Canada CPI Disappoint.

- USDOLLAR Holds Monthly Range Ahead of GDP, PCE Reports.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD slips to a fresh monthly low & threatens bullish formation in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as Greece prepares for the second-round of voting on December 23; next downside target comes in around 1.2190-1.2200 (50% expansion).
  • Will look for a bullish breakout in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to favor a further advance in USD/CHF especially as the upward trending channel continues to take shape.
  • Seeing increased volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) as retail crowd turned net-long EUR/USD on December 17, with the ratio currently standing at +1.61.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD continues to carve string of lower-highs despite even as Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slows more-than-expected in November; will favor a further advance should RSI make a more meaningful advance into overbought territory.
  • Even though the dismal CPI print encourages the Bank of Canada (BoC) to retain a neutral tone for monetary policy, may see a larger correction in USD/CAD on a closing price below 1.1570 (50% expansion).
  • Larger pullback in USD/CAD may spur a move back towards former-resistance around 1.1470 (50% expansion) to 1.1480 (38.2% expansion).

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Read More:

Buy the Dip in EUR/CHF?

The Weekly Volume Report: Volatility Reigns, But Turnover Lacking

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11523.68

11525.88

11479.03

0.33

69.50%

Euro Struggles Ahead of Greek Election- USD/CAD Carves Lower HighsUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar appears to be making a more meaningful run at 11.539 (78.6% expansion) ahead of the final 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, which is expected to show an upward revision in the growth rate to reflect an annualized rate of growth of 4.3% from an initial forecast of 3.9%.
  • Will also have to keep a close eye on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) reports amid the subdued outlook for inflation.
  • USDOLLAR remains at risk of a topping formation as the RSI continues to hold below overbought territory, with former resistance zones around 11,312 (78.6% retracement) to 11,351 (78.6% expansion) remaining in focus.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Fed’s Charles Evans Speaks on U.S. Economy

15:00

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey (DEC)

16:00

7

8

Fed’s John Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy

17:00

Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker Speaks on U.S. Economy

17:30

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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