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USD/CHF Threatens Long-Term Bearish Trend on Negative SNB Rate

USD/CHF Threatens Long-Term Bearish Trend on Negative SNB Rate

2014-12-18 17:25:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USD/CHF Threatens Long-Term Bearish Trend as SNB Pushes Deposit Rate Into Negative Territory.

- USD/JPY Struggles to Hold Above 119.00 Handle Ahead of BoJ Interest Rate Decision.

- USDOLLAR Monthly Range in Focus Post-FOMC; Dollar to Act as Carry Currency?

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USD/CHF

USD/CHF Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • Despite the bullish break, lack of momentum to hold & close above the 119.00 handle may generate range-bound prices in USD/JPY ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision.
  • May see BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda highlight a dovish outlook for monetary policy as falling energy prices undermine the central bank’s scope to achieve the 2% inflation target.
  • As USD/JPY carves a near-term base around 115.10 (61.8% retracement) to 115.20 (161.8% expansion), will keep a close eye on the monthly high (121.83) especially as risk appetite picks up.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Important Timing Relationship Beckons USD/JPY

US Dollar Once Again Looks like a Buy versus Euro, Major Currencies

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11491.27

11515.31

11463.86

-0.05

76.59%

USD/CHF Threatens Long-Term Bearish Trend on Negative SNB RateUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the bullish reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may track sideways over the near-term as it holds the monthly high (11,522).
  • As the FOMC shows a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy in 2015, may see market participants treat the greenback as a carry currency amid the deviation in the policy outlook.
  • Looks as though the former resistance zones around 11,312 (78.6% retracement) to 11,351 (78.6% expansion) will act as suppose, with 11,539 (78.6% expansion) still standing as the topside target.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 13)

13:30

295K

289K

Continuing Claims (DEC 6)

13:30

2436K

2373K

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Composite (DEC P)

14:45

--

53.8

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Services (DEC P)

14:45

56.3

53.6

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (DEC)

15:00

26.0

24.5

Leading Index (NOV)

15:00

0.5%

0.6%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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