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USD/JPY Bearish Formation in Focus Ahead of FOMC, BoJ Meetings

USD/JPY Bearish Formation in Focus Ahead of FOMC, BoJ Meetings

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Retains Bearish Formation Ahead of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Meeting on Risk Aversion.

- NZD/USD Preserves Downward Trending Channel Ahead of New Zealand’s 3Q GDP Report.

- USDOLLAR Outlook Hinges on FOMC’s Forward-Guidance for Monetary Policy.

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/JPY continues to threaten channel resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be breaking out of the near-term bearish momentum ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision on December 19.
  • Despite expectations of seeing the BoJ retain a dovish tone for monetary policy, may see the Japanese Yen continue to follow broader risk trends as market participation wanes going into the end of the year.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since December 8, with the ratio currently holding at +1.41.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • NZD/USD may continue to carve lower highs & lows over the remainder of the week as New Zealand’s 3Q GDP report is expected to show another 0.7% expansion; may need stronger growth to fuel interest rate expectations.
  • Despite the verbal intervention on the kiwi, may see the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stay on course to further normalize monetary policy in 2015 should the economic recovery gather pace.
  • A close below 0.7710-20 (38.2% expansion) may spur a test of the December low (0.7607), with the next key downside objective coming in around 0.7520 (61.8% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

FOMC Preview and Trade Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

Price & Time: GBP/USD Trying to Break From the Range?

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11447.66

11450.3

11383.24

0.57

106.63%

USD/JPY Bearish Formation in Focus Ahead of FOMC, BoJ MeetingsUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar to take cues from the Fed’s updated economic projections/forward-guidance as market participants anticipate the first rate-hike in mid-2015.
  • Beyond the impact on the USDOLLAR, may see a further decline in risk appetite should the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remove the ‘considerable time’ phrase & show a greater willingness to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).
  • With USDOLLAR holding above the former resistance zones around 11,312 (78.6% retracement) to 11,351 (78.6% expansion), close above 11,453 may highlight a further advance in the greenback.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (NOV)

13:30

-0.1%

-0.3%

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

13:30

1.4%

1.3%

Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy (MoM) (NOV)

13:30

0.1%

0.1%

Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy (YoY) (NOV)

13:30

1.8%

1.7%

Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (NOV)

13:30

239.485

239.332

Consumer Price Index Core s.a. (NOV)

13:30

236.369

236.151

Current Account balance (3Q)

13:30

-$97.5B

-$100.3B

Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision

19:00

0.25%

Fed Chair Janet Yellen Holds Press Conference

19:30

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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