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AUD/USD Downside Target in Focus Ahead of RBA Minutes, China PMI

AUD/USD Downside Target in Focus Ahead of RBA Minutes, China PMI

2014-12-15 14:40:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- AUD/USD at Risk for Further Loss on RBA Verbal Intervention, Slowing China Manufacturing.

- USD/JPY Range in Focus Ahead of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision.

- USDOLLAR Carves String of Lower Highs Ahead of FOMC Interest Rate Decision.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD may continue to work its way towards 0.8150 (100% expansion) should the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes reinforce the toughened verbal intervention laid out by Governor Glenn Stevens.
  • China’s Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) may also drag on the aussie as manufacturing activity is expected to contract in December; will slowing global growth put increased pressure on the RBA to further reduce the benchmark interest rate?
  • Despite the bearish trend, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long AUD/USD, with the ratio currently holding at +2.66.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • USD/JPY retains the range-bound price action from the previous week even as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stays in office; may continue to consolidate ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision on December 19 as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains confident in achieving the 2% target for inflation.
  • Nevertheless, long-term outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish especially as Japan slips back into recession; will the BoJ keep the door open to further expand its asset-purchase program?
  • Will favor the topside targets as USD/JPY appears to be carving a near-term base around 117.00 (61.8% expansion) to 117.20 (50% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: Crude Reprieve Ahead?

ST Technicals Offer Moment of Reflection in EUR-crosses

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11447.38

11454.48

11406.86

0.20

79.56%

AUD/USD Downside Target in Focus Ahead of RBA Minutes, China PMIUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar topside targets favored ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policy meeting on December 17 as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retain the bullish trends.
  • Fed’s forward-guidance for monetary policy is likely to heavily impact on the USDOLLAR amid speculation of seeing the central bank adopt a more hawkish tone & removing the ‘considerable time’ phrase.
  • Series of closes above 11,392 may highlight a near-term bottoming process for the greenback, and may produce a more meaningful run at 11,539 (78.6% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Empire Manufacturing (DEC)

13:30

12.40

-3.58

Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)

14:15

0.7%

1.3%

Capacity Utilization (NOV)

14:15

79.4%

80.1%

Manufacturing Production (NOV)

14:15

0.5%

1.1%

NAHB Housing Market Index (DEC)

15:00

59

Net Long-Term TIC Flows (OCT)

21:00

--

Total Net TIC Flows (OCT)

21:00

--

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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