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GBP/USD Threatens Bearish Formation Ahead of BoE Minutes, Fed Meeting

GBP/USD Threatens Bearish Formation Ahead of BoE Minutes, Fed Meeting

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Continues to Threaten Bearish Formation Ahead of BoE Minutes.

- USD/JPY Outlook Clouded by Snap Election; Will BoJ Further Expand QQE?

- USDOLLAR Carves String of Lower Highs Ahead of FOMC Interest Rate Decision.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • GBP/USD looks poised for a larger correction as the bullish breakout in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) gathers pace; still waiting for a close above 1.2720-30 for conviction/confirmation.
  • Bank of England (BoE) Minutes may help to heighten the appeal of the British Pound should the majority of the MPC show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy in 2015.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) may continue to act as a contrarian indicator for GBP/USD direction as retail crowd has been net-long GBP/USD since October 28, with the ratio currently standing at +1.26.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • USD/JPY continues to carve lower-highs ahead of Japan’s December 14 election; pair remains vulnerable to a larger decline should Prime Minister Shinzo Abe fail to retain majority in the lower-house.
  • Even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) comes off of oversold territory, may see a potential gap-higher in USD/JPY should we see a continuation of Abenomics in Japan.
  • At the same time, Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting may continue to dampen the appeal of the Yen should Governor Haruhiko Kuroda keep the door open to further expand the asset-purchase program.
  • Looks as though former resistance around 117.00 (61.8% expansion) may continue to offer near-term support.

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Read More:

The Weekly Volume Report: Divergence Galore!

EUR/USD Threatening Break of Key Gann Threshold

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11407.94

11442.83

11401.09

-0.14

70.39%

GBP/USD Threatens Bearish Formation Ahead of BoE Minutes, Fed MeetingGBP/USD Threatens Bearish Formation Ahead of BoE Minutes, Fed Meeting

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar struggling to retain the advance following the better-than-expected U. of Michigan Confidence survey, while the RSI threatens the bullish momentum.
  • Will keep a close eye on the Fed’s forward-guidance for monetary policy as market participants see the central bank removing the ‘considerable time’ phrase.
  • A close below 11,392 should generate a larger correction in USDOLLAR, with former resistance zones around 11,312 (78.6% retracement) to 11,351 (78.6% expansion) in focus.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Producer Price Index (MoM) (NOV)

13:30

-0.1%

-0.2%

Producer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

13:30

1.4%

1.4%

Produer Price Index ex Food and Energy (MoM) (NOV)

13:30

0.1%

0.0%

Produer Price Index ex Food and Energy (YoY) (NOV)

13:30

1.8%

1.8%

Produer Price Index ex Food, Energy and Trade (MoM) (NOV)

13:30

0.1%

0.0%

Produer Price Index ex Food, Energy and Trade (YoY) (NOV)

13:30

1.7%

1.5%

U. of Michigan Confidence (DEC P)

14:55

89.5

93.8

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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