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EUR/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; Bearish RSI Momentum in Focus

EUR/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; Bearish RSI Momentum in Focus

2014-12-09 17:05:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Threatens Bearish RSI Momentum; Lower-Highs in Focus.

- USD/JPY Breaks Channel Support- Risks Larger Correction on Risk Aversion.

- USDOLLAR to Extend Losses on Failure to Retain Bullish RSI Structure.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the near-term rebound in EUR/USD, will continue to watch the string of lower highs & lows ahead of the Greek elections, with the first round of votes starting on December 17.
  • Will keep a close on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it comes up against trendline resistance; topside break may threaten the bearish channel formation for EUR/USD dating back in September.
  • Seeing a material shift in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) as retail crowd turns net-short EUR/USD earlier this morning, with the ratio currently standing at -1.27.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • USD/JPY looks poised for a larger pullback as it fails to preserve the bullish formation, while RSI finally falls back from overbought territory.
  • Japan’s December 14 election remains the key event risk for the Yen, but the lower-yielding currency may continue to outperform against its major counterparts as market participants scale back their appetite for risk/profits.
  • Will favor the downside targets following the bearish developments, with the next region of interest coming in around the 117.00 handle (61.8% expansion).

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Read More:

Price & Time: The 119.60 Level Looks Critical For USD/JPY

AUDCAD Short Bias Vulnerable- Scalps Target Weekly Opening Range

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11415.58

11504.08

11388.54

-0.53

198.14%

EUR/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; Bearish RSI Momentum in FocusUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar risks a larger decline as RSI struggles to hold in overbought territory; downside break in oscillator to provide conviction/confirmation for a more meaningful correction.
  • Despite the U.S. data prints, will closely monitor Fed expectations as market participants see the central bank removing the ‘considerable time’ phrase from the forward-guidance for monetary policy.
  • In light of the failed run at 11,539 (78.6% expansion), will watch former resistance around 11,312 (78.6% retracement) to 11,351 (78.6% expansion) for initial support.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

NFIB Small Business Optimism (NOV)

12:30

96.5

98.1

JOLTS Job Openings (OCT)

15:00

4795

4834

Wholesale Inventories (OCT)

15:00

0.2%

0.4%

Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM)(OCT)

15:00

0.1%

0.2%

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (DEC)

15:00

47.0

48.4

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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