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GBP/USD Holds Key Support- Waiting on RSI Trigger for Larger Rebound

GBP/USD Holds Key Support- Waiting on RSI Trigger for Larger Rebound

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Remains Capped by Bearish RSI Momentum; BoE Hawks on Tap

- AUD/USD Outlook Mired by Renewed Bets for RBA Rate Cut,Weakening Outlook for China.

- USDOLLAR Comes Off of Channel Resistance; Retail Sales & U. of Michigan Confidence in Focus.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • GBP/USD coming off of key support around 1.5540 (61.8% expansion) to 1.5550 (78.6% retracement), but need a break of the bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to favor a larger rebound.
  • Will keep a close on the news wires with Bank of England (BoE) hawks Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty are scheduled to speak this week.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD since October 28, with the ratio currently holding at +1.32.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart.
  • AUD/USD remains vulnerable to a further decline on the back of the weakening outlook for China – Australia’s largest trading partner; will retain approach to sell-bounces as RSI pushes deeper into oversold territory.
  • Despite renewed bets for additional monetary support from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the region’s employment report may heighten the appeal of the higher-yielding currency as job growth is expected to climb another 15.0K in November.
  • Will watch the 0.8200 handle for psychological support, but next key downside level of interest comes in around 0.8150 (100% expansion).

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Read More:

COT: Record Speculative Short Position in Mexican Peso

Weekly Trading Forecast: Is this the Week EURUSD Finally Breaks 1.2000?

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11487.21

11522.86

11479.8

-0.07

82.20%

GBP/USD Holds Key Support- Waiting on RSI Trigger for Larger ReboundUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar struggles to break channel resistance, topside targets remain favored as RSI pushes back into overbought territory.
  • Another uptick in U.S. Advance Retail Sales & U. of Michigan Confidence survey should further boost the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback as it bodes well for the holiday shopping season and fuels interest rate expectations.
  • Will continue to keep a close eye on 11,539 (78.6% expansion) followed by 11,623 (100% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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