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RBNZ maintains benchmark interest rate at 0.25% with bond purhcase program at NZD100b

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USD/CAD Threatens Bearish RSI Momentum- NZD to Face RBNZ

USD/CAD Threatens Bearish RSI Momentum- NZD to Face RBNZ

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/CAD Clears Monthly Opening Range as Canada Employment Report Disappoints.

- NZD/USD Vulnerable to Further Losses on RBNZ Verbal Intervention.

- USDOLLAR Rallies to Fresh December High as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Surge 321K.

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USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/CAD breaks the opening monthly range and rallies to a fresh monthly high of 1.1475 as Canada Employment contracts 10.7K in November.
  • Long-term outlook for USD/CAD remains bullish as Bank of Canada (BoC) remains reluctant to raise the benchmark interest rate; need a break of the bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to favor a further advance.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short USD/CAD since September 23, with the ratio currently standing at -1.47.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • NZD/USD remains at risk to a further decline over the near-term as the bearish RSI break takes shape; will stick to the approach to sell-bounces in kiwi-dollar as price comes up against channel support.
  • Even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to retain a wait-and-see approach, NZD/USD remains vulnerable to further losses as Governor Graeme Wheeler retains the verbal intervention on the kiwi.
  • Failure to hold the November low (0.7659) may spur a more meaningful run at the next downside region of interest coming in around 0.7600 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7620 (50% expansion).

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Read More:

Trade Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Before and After NFPs

Crude Oil Vulnerable to Deeper Losses, SPX 500 Pullback Hinted

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11488.88

11503.22

11421.16

0.54

155.74%

USD/CAD Threatens Bearish RSI Momentum- NZD to Face RBNZUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar coming up against channel resistance as it rallies to a fresh monthly high of 11,503 following the stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report; topside targets remain favored as the RSI pushes deeper into oversold territory.
  • Strong job growth paired with the uptick in wage growth is spurring speculation the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may have greater scope to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
  • Next topside region of interest comes in around 11,539 (78.6% expansion) followed by 11,623 (100% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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