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ECB Sparks Euro Relief Rally- AUD Weakness in Focus Ahead of NFP

ECB Sparks Euro Relief Rally- AUD Weakness in Focus Ahead of NFP

2014-12-04 17:10:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Relief Rally to Gather Pace as ECB Buys More Time.

- AUD/USD Risks Further Losses as RSI Dips Back Into Oversold Territory.

- USDOLLAR Remains Overbought Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD squeezes higher as European Central Bank (ECB) fails to deliver new round of monetary stimulus; bullish engulfing pattern may highlight larger relief rally for euro.
  • Nevertheless, long-term outlook remains bearish as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retain the downward trends; will watch former support around 1.2610-20 (61.8% expansion) for new resistance.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retain crowd remains net-long EUR/USD following the ECB meeting, with the ratio currently standing at +1.09.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • AUD/USD continues to test channel support as it slips to a fresh monthly low of 0.8354; downside targets remain favored as the RSI appears to be pushing back into oversold territory.
  • Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) pledge for a period of interest rate stability, seeing growing bets for a rate cut in 2015 following the dismal 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report.
  • Will retain the approach to sell-bounces in AUD/USD, with the next downside region of interest coming in around the 0.8300-0.8310 (78.6% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Key EURUSD Scalp Targets Heading Into ECB / NFPs

Gold Stalls Near Key Resistance After Largest Rally in Over 2 Years

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11406.68

11452.62

11392.25

-0.24

114.80%

ECB Sparks Euro Relief Rally- AUD Weakness in Focus Ahead of NFPUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index struggling to hold its ground after tagging a fresh monthly high of 11,453, (61.8% expansion); at risk for a larger pullback should the RSI fall back from overbought territory.
  • Nevertheless, the highlight anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may heighten the appeal of the greenback as employment is expected to increase another 230K while wage growth is expected to uptick to an annualized 2.1%.
  • Lack of momentum to break above 11,453 (61.8% expansion) may spur a near-term correction, with former resistance around 11,120 (161.8% expansion) to 11,138 (61.8% expansion) in view.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)

12:30

--

-20.7%

Initial Jobless Claims

13:30

295K

297K

Continuing Claims

13:30

2318K

2362K

Fed's Mester Gives Opening Remarks at Conference in Washington

13:30

Fed's Brainard Speaks on Financial Stability in Washington

17:30

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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