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GBP/USD Risks Larger Rebound as RSI Threatens Bearish Momentum

GBP/USD Risks Larger Rebound as RSI Threatens Bearish Momentum

2014-12-03 16:50:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Threatens Bearish RSI Momentum Ahead of BoE Interest Rate Decision.

- USD/CAD Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Neutral BoC- Canada Employment Report in Focus.

- USDOLLAR Topside Targets Favored as Bullish RSI Momentum Gathers Pace.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • GBP/USD may face a larger rebound as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to come off of oversold territory; waiting for a bullish break in the oscillator for conviction/confirmation.
  • Even though the Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to retain its current policy in December, British Pound crosses will be largely in focus as the central bank remains on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retain crowd has been net-long GBP/USD since October 28, with the ratio currently holding at +1.43.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD may continue to face range-bound prices as the Bank of Canada (BoC) lays out a very balanced tone for monetary policy; seems as though Governor Stephen Poloz remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.
  • In light of the limited market reaction to the BoC, Canada’s Employment report may be the bigger fundamental catalyst for the loonie as job growth is expected to hold flat in November.
  • Looks as though 1.1430 (161.8% expansion) will continue to act as resistance on a close-basis, with near-term support coming in around 1.1310 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1320 (61.8% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Scalping the AUDNZD Rebound- Key Resistance 1.09

Fresh Yearly Lows in EUR/USD as Traders Position for Dovish ECB

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11426.67

11433.64

11400.11

0.16

64.21%

GBP/USD Risks Larger Rebound as RSI Threatens Bearish MomentumUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the limited market reaction to the better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing survey, the near-term outlook for the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index remains favorable as the RSI pushes back into overbought territory.
  • Nevertheless, the weaker-than-expected ADP Employment print may curb bets for a strong Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figure amid expectations for another 230K rise in U.S. employment.
  • Will continue to favor topside targets as the RSI extends the bullish momentum, with the next region on interest coming in at 11,453 (61.8% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 28)

12:00

--

-7.3%

ADP Employment Change (NOV)

13:15

222K

208K

Nonfarm Productivity (3Q F)

13:30

2.4%

2.3%

Unit Labor Costs (3Q F)

13:30

-0.2%

-1.0%

Markit Purchasing Manager Index- Services (NOV F)

14:45

56.5

56.2

Markit Purchasing Manager Index- Composite (NOV F)

14:45

--

56.1

ISM Non-Manufacturing (NOV)

15:00

57.5

59.3

Fed’s Beige Book

19:00

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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