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USD/CAD Risks Larger Correction on Hawkish BoC- Bearish RSI in Focus

USD/CAD Risks Larger Correction on Hawkish BoC- Bearish RSI in Focus

2014-12-02 17:15:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- Bullish USD/CAD Outlook Vulnerable to Hawkish Bank of Canada (BoC).

- NZD/USD to Face Range-Bounce Prices Amid Failed Attempts to Close Below 0.7800.

- USDOLLAR Benefits From Upbeat Data- RSI Continues to Flirt With Overbought Territory.

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USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to retain its current policy, USD/CAD may face a larger correction should Governor Stephen Poloz show a greater willingness to raise the benchmark interest rate in 2015.
  • As a result, will wait for a bullish break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for a resumption of the bullish trend as USD/CAD remains capped around 1.1460-70 (100% expansion).
  • Will continue to view the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) as a contrarian indicator as retail crowd has been net-short USD/CAD since the end of September, with the ratio currently holding at -1.35.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • NZD/USD slipped to 0.7783 as Fonterra Auction for Whole Milk Powder Prices fell 7.1%; will look for a further decline as RSI struggles to retain the bullish momentum from back in October.
  • May see the downward trending channel in NZD/USD gather pace as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold at the December 10 policy meeting.
  • However, string of failed attempts to close below 0.7800 (38.2% retracement) may continue to generate range-bound prices in NZD/USD.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Talks Down Interest Rate Cut Speculation

December Forex Seasonality Sees USD Strength into Year End

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11397.81

11408.76

11344.08

0.38

119.34%

USD/CAD Risks Larger Correction on Hawkish BoC- Bearish RSI in FocusUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index climbs to a fresh monthly high of 11,408 amid the positive data prints; keeping a close eye on the RSI as it appears to be pushing back into overbought territory.
  • Despite the subdued outlook for inflation, seems as though central officials see weaker commodity prices having a more positive impact on growth amid recent comments from Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer.
  • Despite the risk for a move back towards 11,120 (161.8% expansion) to 11,138 (61.8% expansion), the topside push in RSI may expose the next topside objective around 11,453 (61.8% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

ISM New York (NOV)

14:45

55.0

62.4

Construction Spending (MoM) (OC)T

15:00

0.6%

1.1%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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