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USD/JPY Remains Overbought- Weighed by Risk for Higher JGB Yields

USD/JPY Remains Overbought- Weighed by Risk for Higher JGB Yields

2014-12-01 17:30:00
David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Falls Back from Fresh Monthly High as Moody’s See Risk of Higher JGB-Yields.

- AUD/USD Rebounds from Channel Support; RBA to Toughen Verbal Intervention?

- USDOLLAR RSI Continues to Mark Failed Attempts to Push Back Into Overbought Territory.

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USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though Moody’s cut Japan’s credit-rating to A1 from Aa3, USD/JPY has come off of a monthly high of 119.13 as the rating agency sees a risk for higher Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields.
  • Despite the risks surrounding the December 14 snap election, still need to see the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fall back from overbought territory for conviction/confirmation for a larger correction.
  • Nevertheless, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short USD/JPY coming into December, with the ratio currently standing at -1.07.


AUD/JPY Daily Chart
  • Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to retain its current policy, AUD/USD remains vulnerable going into the interest rate decision as the central bank retains the verbal intervention on the local currency.
  • Australia’s 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may limit the downside risk for AUD/USD amid expectations for a pickup in the growth rate but will retain the approach to sell-bounces as long as price & RSI retain the bearish trends.
  • Will watch the monthly opening range take shape, with the next downside hurdle coming in around 0.8370 (161.8% expansion) to the 0.8400 pivot.

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Read More:

Central Banks in Focus this Week as RBA, ECB Meet, NFPs on FridayCrude Oil Sinks to Lowest Since 2009, SPX 500 Flirting with Reversal

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






USD/JPY Remains Overbought- Weighed by Risk for Higher JGB YieldsUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index pares decline to 11,327 as ISM Manufacturing exceeds forecast; will continue to watch market expectations ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as employment is expected to increase another 230K in November.
  • At the same time, have a slew of Fed commentary on tap this week with William Dudley, Stanley Fischer, Janet Yellen, Lael Brainard, Charles Plosser, Richard Fisher and Loretta Mester scheduled to speak in the coming days.
  • Will retain a long-term bullish outlook for USDOLLAR as long as the RSI retains the bullish momentum, but may a move back towards 11,120 (161.8% expansion) to 11,138 (61.8% expansion) should the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric drag on interest rate expectations.

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Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (NOV F)




ISM Manufacturing (NOV)




ISM Prices Paid (NOV)




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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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