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EUR/USD Rebound Vulnerable to Slowing German, Euro-Zone CPI

EUR/USD Rebound Vulnerable to Slowing German, Euro-Zone CPI

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD November Range Remains in Focus Ahead of German, Euro-Zone CPI.

- USD/CAD Preserves Bearish RSI Momentum Ahead of Canada 3Q GDP.

- USDOLLAR Slips to Fresh Weekly-Low; RSI Struggles to Push Back Into Overbought Territory.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD may make another run at the monthly low (1.2356) as Germany’s & Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show a further slowdown in price growth.
  • Despite growing speculation for a QE announcement at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) December 4 meeting, seems as though Governing Council will be more willing in 1Q 2015 as they prepare for the next take up of the targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation (T-LTRO).
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd turned net-short EUR/USD on November 25, with the ratio currently holding at -1.28.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • Long-term outlook for USD/CAD remains bullish as the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains reluctant to further normalize monetary policy; need a break of the bearish trend in price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to revert back to the approach of looking for opportunities to buy-dips.
  • May see a larger pullback in USD/CAD as it retains the downward channel from earlier this month, but will retain a constructive outlook amid the string of failed attempts to close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1220.
  • Will continue to look for a long-term series of higher highs & lows, but need to see a move & closing price back above 1.1310 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1320 (61.8% expansion) to look for fresh highs in USD/CAD.

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Read More:

Price & Time: December Dollar Surprise?

EUR Short Covering Elusive as More Talk of QE Inspires Bears

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11317.96

11358.43

11309.3

-0.21

86.60%

EUR/USD Rebound Vulnerable to Slowing German, Euro-Zone CPIUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index slips to fresh weekly low of 11,308 amid the lackluster data prints coming out of the world’s largest economy; remains vulnerable to month-end flows especially with the Thanksgiving holiday on tap.
  • As the RSI struggles to hold in overbought territory, may see a larger USDOLLAR pullback going into the first full-week of December; will keep a close eye on the monthly opening range especially ahead of the Fed’s December 17 meeting.
  • Fails attempts to close above 11,312 (78.6% retracement) to 11,351 (78.6% expansion) may spur a move back towards 11,120 (161.8% expansion) to 11,138 (61.8% expansion).

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 21)

12:00

--

-4.3%

Durable Goods Orders (OCT)

13:30

-0.6%

0.4%

Durable Goods ex Transportation (OCT)

13:30

0.5%

-0.9%

Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (OCT)

13:30

1.0%

-1.3%

Non-Defense Capital Shipments ex Aircrafts (OCT)

13:30

0.5%

-0.4%

Personal Income (OCT)

13:30

0.4%

0.2%

Personal Spending (OCT)

13:30

0.3%

0.2%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (OCT)

13:30

0.0%

0.1%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (OCT)

13:30

1.4%

1.4%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (OCT)

13:30

0.2%

0.2%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (OCT)

13:30

1.5%

1.6%

Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 22)

13:30

288K

313K

Continuing Claims (NOV 15)

13:30

2350K

2316K

Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (NOV)

14:45

63.0

60.8

U. of Michigan Confidence (NOV F)

14:55

90.0

88.8

Pending Home Sales (MoM)

15:00

0.5%

-1.1%

Pending Home Sales (YoY) (OCT)

15:00

2.5%

2.2%

New Home Sales (MoM) (OCT)

15:00

0.8%

0.7%

New Home Sales (OCT)

15:00

471K

458K

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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