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  • #Gold has a short-term bullish set-up that may play nicely with USD weakening. The longer and shorter-term path of least resistance remains higher. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/CR4z6lul34
  • AiG Manufacturing Index (May): 41.6 vs 35.8 prior. Factory sector shrank for a second consecutive month, but at a slower pace than April. #AUDUSD
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  • Hello there, traders! Heads up: we have got a data-packed week ahead of us. Here are the highlights: Central bank rate decisions: - BOC - ECB Markit PMI data out of: China US Vietnam Malaysia South Korea Philippines Thailand Taiwan India Turkey (continued⬇️)
  • The European Commission proposed an ambitious recovery fund, containing the key parts of the Franco-German aid package with grants at EUR 500bln and loans at EUR 250bln. Get your $EURUSD update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/LmIaveRajb https://t.co/LWTBVLIDBf
  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/OSUXrN5P3j https://t.co/3nwDel6e28
  • The tension from March continues to subside, allowing for the $USD to slide to fresh two-month-lows. Get your currencies market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/bRSRjUqg6Z https://t.co/Q35YpIZEd2
USDOLLAR Risks Larger Pullback on Dismal 3Q GDP Report

USDOLLAR Risks Larger Pullback on Dismal 3Q GDP Report

2014-11-24 17:10:00
David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Vulnerable to Dismal 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report.

- USD/JPY Bullish Outlook Clouded by Fiscal, Monetary Policy Uncertainty.

- NZD/USD Remains at Risk for Further Losses Amid String of Lower-Highs.

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






USDOLLAR Risks Larger Pullback on Dismal 3Q GDP ReportUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index certainly faces a risk for a larger pullback as the preliminary 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is expected to show a downward revision in the growth rate to an annualized 3.3% from an initial forecast of 3.5%.
  • Nevertheless, we will retain a long-term bullish outlook for the USDOLLAR amid growing bets for a Fed rate hike in mid-2015; need to see faster inflation for a greater argument to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
  • Continued failed attempt to push & close above 11,351 (78.6% expansion) may highlight a near-term top; former resistance around 11,120 (161.8% expansion) to 11,138 (61.8% expansion) in focus going into December.

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (OCT)




Markit Purchasing Manager Index Services (NOV P)




Markit Purchasing Manager Index Composite (NOV P)




Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (NOV)




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USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Long-term USD/JPY outlook remains bullish as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to embark on its easing cycle; will continue to favor topside targets as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushes deeper into overbought territory, but need a break of resistance around the 87 region to favor fresh highs.
  • Snap election on December 14 may spur a material shift in the USD/JPY forecast as Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) pledges to combat excessive Yen weakness.
  • Will keep a close eye on month-end flows as the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd turning net-short on USD/JPY earlier this morning, with the ratio currently standing at -1.05.

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NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • Will continue to look for a series of lower-highs in NZD/USD as the RSI retains the bearish momentum from back in March while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) preserves the verbal intervention on kiwi.
  • Even though the Trade Balance is expected to show the deficit narrowing in October, seems as RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler is in no rush to normalize monetary policy.
  • Downside targets remain favored, but need a close below 0.7830 (23.6% expansion) to 0.7850 (50% retracement) for conviction/confirmation for a lower-low.

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Read More:

Price & Time: EUR/USD Rebounds Ahead of Yearly Low

EURUSD Slammed into Range Lows on Outside Week

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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